Table 4.

ARIMA model prediction of the incidence rates for 2019–2023.

	Prediction of national incidence			Prediction of the incidence in the 10–20 age group			Prediction of the incidence in the 20–30 age group			Prediction of the incidence in Yunnan Province			Prediction of the incidence in Hainan Province
Year	Prediction (cases)	95% LCL (cases)	95% UCL (cases)	Prediction (cases)	95% LCL (cases)	95% UCL (cases)	Prediction (cases)	95% LCL (cases)	95% UCL (cases)	Prediction (cases)	95% LCL (cases)	95% UCL (cases)	Prediction (cases)	95% LCL (cases)	95% UCL (cases)
2019	–	–	–	12,329	10,824	13,834	70,470	54,191	86,748	8,309	6,964	9,653	3,195	2,730	3,661
2020	–	–	–	12,955	10,888	15,022	76,871	50,626	103,115	10,013	8,163	11,864	3,679	3,054	4,305
2021	–	–	–	13,581	10,889	16,273	84,658	46,886	122,429	11,894	9,494	14,294	4,205	3,401	5,008
2022	109,012	92,725	125,298	14,206	10,831	17,582	91,590	40,811	142,369	13,951	10,961	16,942	4,772	3,774	5,770
2023	97,910	65,959	129,857	14,832	10,720	18,944	99,049	33,990	164,109	16,184	12,564	19,805	5,380	4,172	6,588