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. 2023 Oct 10;21(10):e08271. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2023.8271

Table B.3.

Results from the model simulations for each scenario in France

Scenario Duration of epidemic (days) Number of infected farms (a) Number of culled farms (a) Number of vaccinated farms (a) , (b)
Median 5% 95% Median 5% 95% Median 5% 95% Median 5% 95%
S0: Minimum EU 122 12 241 681 5 1,452 812 5 1,727
S1: 1‐km ring culling 81 12 156 221 5 404 1,145 16 2,057
S2: 1‐km ring vaccination 101 12 193 407 5 897 467 5 1,073 1,005 7 2,243
S3: 3‐km ring vaccination 94 12 170 270 5 722 306 5 860 1,845 35 4,462
S4: 10‐km ring vaccination 108 11 199 397 4 1,074 451 5 1,276 3,248 238 7,756
S5: Preventive vaccination ducks 17 6 42 8 2 30 10 2 36 2,192
(a)

In this analysis a farm is considered to be characterised by unique location (XY coordinates), owner and poultry species. When a farm is detected infected, this and all the other farms in the same locations but with different poultry species or owner would be culled. This is the reason for the differences between the number of infected and culled.

(b)

This is the number of active farms (epidemiological units) being vaccinated under each scenario and do not indicate the number of times that poultry in a farm get vaccinated. For emergency vaccination one vaccination per farm is assumed. For preventive vaccination, poultry within a farm may receive more than one vaccination or the same farm might be subjected to more than one vaccine application when a new production cycle starts.