Table B.3.
Scenario | Duration of epidemic (days) | Number of infected farms (a) | Number of culled farms (a) | Number of vaccinated farms (a) , (b) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Median | 5% | 95% | Median | 5% | 95% | Median | 5% | 95% | Median | 5% | 95% | |
S0: Minimum EU | 122 | 12 | 241 | 681 | 5 | 1,452 | 812 | 5 | 1,727 | – | – | – |
S1: 1‐km ring culling | 81 | 12 | 156 | 221 | 5 | 404 | 1,145 | 16 | 2,057 | – | – | – |
S2: 1‐km ring vaccination | 101 | 12 | 193 | 407 | 5 | 897 | 467 | 5 | 1,073 | 1,005 | 7 | 2,243 |
S3: 3‐km ring vaccination | 94 | 12 | 170 | 270 | 5 | 722 | 306 | 5 | 860 | 1,845 | 35 | 4,462 |
S4: 10‐km ring vaccination | 108 | 11 | 199 | 397 | 4 | 1,074 | 451 | 5 | 1,276 | 3,248 | 238 | 7,756 |
S5: Preventive vaccination ducks | 17 | 6 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 36 | 2,192 |
In this analysis a farm is considered to be characterised by unique location (XY coordinates), owner and poultry species. When a farm is detected infected, this and all the other farms in the same locations but with different poultry species or owner would be culled. This is the reason for the differences between the number of infected and culled.
This is the number of active farms (epidemiological units) being vaccinated under each scenario and do not indicate the number of times that poultry in a farm get vaccinated. For emergency vaccination one vaccination per farm is assumed. For preventive vaccination, poultry within a farm may receive more than one vaccination or the same farm might be subjected to more than one vaccine application when a new production cycle starts.