Table B.4.

Results from the model simulations for each scenario in Italy

Scenario	Duration (days) (a)			Number of infected farms			Number of culled farms			Number of vaccinated farms (a) , (b)
	Median	5%	95%	Median	5%	95%	Median	5%	95%	Median	5%	95%
S0: Minimum EU	164	28	303	179	8	343	179	8	343	–	–	–
S1: 1‐km ring culling	76	23	152	40	7	100	197	27	465	–	–	–
S2: 1‐km ring vaccination	111	6	252	47	2	175	47	2	175	96	1	327
S3: 3‐km ring vaccination	77	5	167	23	2	80	23	2	80	205	7	580
S4: 10‐km ring vaccination	66	4	177	18	2	148	18	2	148	612	68	1182
S5: Preventive vaccination turkeys	30	10	71	8	2	23	8	2	23	620

^(a)In this analysis a farm is considered to be characterised by unique location (XY coordinates), owner and poultry species. When a farm is detected infected, this and all the other farms in the same locations but with different poultry species or owner would be culled. This is the reason for the differences between the number of infected and culled.

^(b)This is the number of active farms (epidemiological units) being vaccinated under each scenario and do not indicate the number of times that poultry in a farm get vaccinated. For emergency vaccination one vaccination per farm is assumed. For preventive vaccination, poultry within a farm may receive more than one vaccination or the same farm might be subjected to more than one vaccine application when a new production cycle starts.