Table 2.
Model-estimated survival outcomes and per-patient costs for advanced lung cancer in Australia.
| Base case | Sensitivity analyses | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low price | Optimal utilisation | Treat to progression | ||
| Per-patient cost (2020 AUD) | ||||
| Meana (95% UI) | $116,069 (107,378–124,933) | $82,845 (77,422–87,800) | $154,299 (146,499–161,591) | $133,854 (121,252–144,720) |
| Overall survival | ||||
| 1 year (95% UI) | 40.5% (36.6–44.9) | b | 51.9% (49.1–55.2) | b |
| 2 year (95% UI) | 20.0% (17.3–23.1) | b | 27.1% (24.7–30.1) | b |
| 5 year (95% UI) | 4.8% (3.7–5.9) | b | 6.7% (5.5–8.2) | b |
| 10 year (95% UI) | 1.2% (0.9–1.7) | b | 1.8% (1.3–2.4) | b |
| Meana (95% UI) | 16.4 months (14.7–18.1) | b | 20.5 months (19.1–22.5) | b |
Note: 95% UIs give the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 500 simulations (of 20,000 patients each) in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis
AUD Australian dollars, UI uncertainty interval
aEstimated up to 10 years after diagnosis
bSurvival outcomes identical to the base-case analysis