. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2024 Nov 1.

Published in final edited form as: Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 2023 Sep 11;18(6):349–356. doi: 10.1097/COH.0000000000000818

Table 1.

Comparison of observed and counterfactual placebo-group HIV incidence rates in the AMP studies, HVTN 703/HPTN 081 and HVTN 704/HPTN 085.

Trial	Subset	Observed placebo HIV incidence (95% CI)	Placebo HIV incidence accounting for PrEP (95% CI)	Historical data-based counterfactual placebo HIV incidence (95% CI)	RGC-based counterfactual placebo HIV incidence (95% CI)
HVTN 703/HPTN 081	Overall	3.1% (2.0%, 4.4%)	3.1% (2.0%, 4.2%)	4.0% (3.7%, 4.3%)	--
	South Africa	3.2% (1.8%, 5.1%)	3.3% (1.8%, 5.1%)	4.6% (4.2%, 4.9%)	--
HVTN 704/HPTN 085	Overall	2.9% (2.1%, 4.0%)	3.9% (2.6%, 5.5%)	3.1% (2.6%, 3.5%)	4.5% (3.5%, 5.8%)
	United Stated	1.2% (0.5%, 2.3%)	2.2% (0.7%, 4.2%)	2.3% (1.7%, 2.9%)	4.4% (3.5%, 5.7%)
	Peru	5.2% (3.4%, 7.6%)	5.4% (3.4%, 7.7%)	3.0% (2.3%, 3.7%)	4.6% (3.5%, 6.0%)

PrEP=pre-exposure prophylaxis

RGC=rectal gonorrhea

AMP= antibody mediated prevention