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. 2023 Oct 9;29(10):2559–2569. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02598-9

Fig. 6. Depth of ctDNA response in association with RECIST radiographic response.

Fig. 6

a, All patients with complete radiographic response (CR) and six of nine patients with partial response (PR) showed ctDNA clearance (mR) during on-therapy timepoints (C2D1 and/or C3D1). In contrast, for patients with stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD), ctDNA clearance was much less frequent (two of 10 patients with SD and four of 14 patients with PD). The upper half of the vertical axis indicates the maxMAF observed in the baseline sample (green), whereas the lower half depicts the maxMAF in the on-therapy timepoints. maxMAF values are pseudo-log transformed for improved visual clarity. b,c, At each on-therapy timepoint, the fractional change in maxMAF compared to the baseline sample was used to predict the radiographic response at 12 weeks. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are shown, and point estimates for AUC along with 95% CIs are indicated. Change in maxMAF at C2D1 predicted RECIST response with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.59–0.94), whereas change in maxMAF at C3D1 predicted RECIST response with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.67–0.95). The dot sizes do not code for any data element displayed; rather, these are selected to visually maximize clarity, such that overlapping marks from distinct timepoints are not blocked and can be visually distinguished. LOD, limit of detection.