Table 5.
Estimates (odds ratios) of multinomial logit models on the probability of a change in fertility intentions between February 2020 and June 2021
| MOTHERS | FATHERS | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 1 + interaction with worsened financial situation | Model 1 + interaction with non-professional or non-managerial position | Model 1 + Interaction with childcare burden | Model 1 | Model 1 + interaction with worsened financial situation | Response | |||||||
| Predictors | OR | p-value | OR | p-value | OR | p-value | OR | p-value | OR | p-value | OR | p-value | |
| (Intercept) | 0.066 | < 0.001 | 0.057 | < 0.001 | 0.054 | < 0.001 | 0.060 | < 0.001 | 0.186 | < 0.001 | 0.191 | < 0.001 | Decrease |
| Age (ref. 30–34) | |||||||||||||
| 20–24 | 2.387 | 0.045 | 2.339 | 0.052 | 2.443 | 0.040 | 2.376 | 0.047 | 0.220 | 0.157 | 0.217 | 0.152 | Decrease |
| 25–29 | 1.115 | 0.759 | 1.096 | 0.797 | 1.098 | 0.793 | 1.115 | 0.760 | 1.055 | 0.898 | 1.073 | 0.866 | Decrease |
| 35–39 | 0.649 | 0.148 | 0.609 | 0.100 | 0.651 | 0.153 | 0.649 | 0.148 | 0.740 | 0.339 | 0.763 | 0.391 | Decrease |
| 40–44 | 0.250 | 0.002 | 0.246 | 0.002 | 0.252 | 0.003 | 0.250 | 0.002 | 0.588 | 0.153 | 0.578 | 0.141 | Decrease |
| Change in relationship status | 0.947 | 0.946 | 0.925 | 0.923 | 0.977 | 0.977 | 0.977 | 0.977 | 0.427 | 0.449 | 0.407 | 0.426 | Decrease |
| Insufficient housing conditions | 0.891 | 0.769 | 0.949 | 0.895 | 0.878 | 0.742 | 0.913 | 0.816 | 0.808 | 0.577 | 0.805 | 0.572 | Decrease |
| Worsened partnership quality | 1.452 | 0.261 | 1.541 | 0.191 | 1.467 | 0.249 | 1.454 | 0.261 | 2.099 | 0.023 | 2.035 | 0.032 | Decrease |
| Covid-19 health risk of any HH member | 1.152 | 0.576 | 1.152 | 0.577 | 1.156 | 0.565 | 1.163 | 0.550 | 1.689 | 0.076 | 1.711 | 0.070 | Decrease |
| Number of children | 1.010 | 0.958 | 1.019 | 0.918 | 1.014 | 0.940 | 1.011 | 0.953 | 0.741 | 0.126 | 0.731 | 0.113 | Decrease |
| Age of the youngest child (ref. 15-35 m) | Decrease | ||||||||||||
| 0-14 m | 2.989 | 0.002 | 3.128 | 0.002 | 2.966 | 0.002 | 2.892 | 0.003 | 3.024 | 0.005 | 3.096 | 0.004 | Decrease |
| 3-6y | 0.629 | 0.220 | 0.624 | 0.213 | 0.633 | 0.226 | 0.626 | 0.216 | 0.917 | 0.818 | 0.916 | 0.817 | Decrease |
| 7 + y | 0.910 | 0.793 | 0.927 | 0.834 | 0.911 | 0.795 | 0.899 | 0.766 | 0.544 | 0.124 | 0.548 | 0.128 | Decrease |
| High educational level | 2.503 | 0.002 | 2.483 | 0.002 | 2.542 | 0.002 | 2.513 | 0.002 | 1.256 | 0.432 | 1.255 | 0.434 | Decrease |
| Poor subjective financial situation | 1.368 | 0.363 | 1.306 | 0.442 | 1.374 | 0.357 | 1.367 | 0.366 | 1.288 | 0.455 | 1.332 | 0.399 | Decrease |
| Number of months partner worked from home | 0.985 | 0.597 | 0.986 | 0.622 | 0.984 | 0.564 | 0.987 | 0.633 | 1.017 | 0.525 | 1.017 | 0.522 | Decrease |
| Change in HBW (ref. No access—No access) | Decrease | ||||||||||||
| No access—access | 1.744 | 0.078 | 2.894 | 0.004 | 2.248 | 0.096 | 2.522 | 0.036 | 0.873 | 0.737 | 1.007 | 0.988 | Decrease |
| Access—access ( +) | 1.183 | 0.546 | 1.394 | 0.339 | 1.552 | 0.351 | 1.321 | 0.463 | 1.251 | 0.490 | 1.118 | 0.760 | Decrease |
| Child care burden | 0.943 | 0.392 | 0.926 | 0.274 | 0.944 | 0.409 | 1.001 | 0.993 | 0.847 | 0.095 | 0.847 | 0.094 | Decrease |
| Worsened financial situation | 1.909 | 0.023 | 2.904 | 0.004 | 1.890 | 0.025 | 1.871 | 0.028 | 2.346 | 0.005 | 2.206 | 0.032 | Decrease |
| Non-professional or non-managerial position | 1.052 | 0.845 | 1.034 | 0.897 | 1.331 | 0.482 | 1.061 | 0.818 | 0.815 | 0.476 | 0.808 | 0.458 | Decrease |
| Interaction: Change in HBW & Worsened financial situation | Decrease | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Worsened fin sit | 0.202 | 0.020 | 0.721 | 0.682 | Decrease | ||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Worsened fin sit | 0.709 | 0.548 | 1.862 | 0.375 | Decrease | ||||||||
| Interaction: Change in HBW & Non-prof. or non-manag. position | Decrease | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Non-prof./Non-manag. position | 0.669 | 0.531 | Decrease | ||||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Non-prof./Non-manag. Position | 0.664 | 0.483 | Decrease | ||||||||||
| Inte raction: Change in HBW & Childcare burden | Decrease | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Childcare burden | 0.809 | 0.244 | Decrease | ||||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Childcare burden | 0.938 | 0.666 | Decrease | ||||||||||
| (Intercept) | 0.161 | 0.004 | 0.170 | 0.005 | 0.104 | 0.002 | 0.170 | 0.006 | 0.312 | 0.025 | 0.330 | 0.033 | Increase |
| Age (ref. 30–34) | Increase | ||||||||||||
| 20–24 | 1.735 | 0.251 | 1.776 | 0.231 | 1.803 | 0.223 | 1.716 | 0.261 | 0.897 | 0.856 | 0.909 | 0.875 | Increase |
| 25–29 | 1.811 | 0.102 | 1.885 | 0.083 | 1.735 | 0.131 | 1.846 | 0.092 | 1.196 | 0.635 | 1.172 | 0.675 | Increase |
| 35–39 | 0.710 | 0.311 | 0.729 | 0.353 | 0.691 | 0.277 | 0.710 | 0.313 | 0.921 | 0.776 | 0.926 | 0.790 | Increase |
| 40–44 | 0.234 | 0.005 | 0.234 | 0.005 | 0.234 | 0.005 | 0.231 | 0.005 | 0.440 | 0.027 | 0.442 | 0.028 | Increase |
| Change in relationship status | 1.174 | 0.838 | 1.236 | 0.788 | 1.273 | 0.760 | 1.232 | 0.791 | 2.119 | 0.223 | 2.139 | 0.220 | Increase |
| Insufficient housing conditions | 0.583 | 0.285 | 0.578 | 0.280 | 0.554 | 0.243 | 0.604 | 0.320 | 1.082 | 0.820 | 1.049 | 0.892 | Increase |
| Worsened partnership quality | 2.457 | 0.011 | 2.409 | 0.013 | 2.535 | 0.008 | 2.484 | 0.010 | 1.815 | 0.059 | 1.865 | 0.051 | Increase |
| Covid-19 health risk of any HH member | 1.189 | 0.538 | 1.205 | 0.506 | 1.180 | 0.557 | 1.198 | 0.522 | 1.371 | 0.253 | 1.377 | 0.247 | Increase |
| Number of children | 0.761 | 0.201 | 0.759 | 0.197 | 0.769 | 0.221 | 0.757 | 0.193 | 0.592 | 0.005 | 0.591 | 0.005 | Increase |
| Age of the youngest child (ref. 15-35 m) | Increase | ||||||||||||
| 0–14 m | 1.236 | 0.659 | 1.196 | 0.709 | 1.258 | 0.633 | 1.274 | 0.615 | 0.936 | 0.865 | 0.913 | 0.817 | Increase |
| 3-6y | 1.156 | 0.709 | 1.155 | 0.712 | 1.177 | 0.676 | 1.180 | 0.672 | 0.668 | 0.212 | 0.650 | 0.186 | Increase |
| 7 + y | 1.092 | 0.824 | 1.091 | 0.827 | 1.126 | 0.766 | 1.125 | 0.769 | 0.479 | 0.028 | 0.475 | 0.026 | Increase |
| High educational level | 1.069 | 0.826 | 1.081 | 0.797 | 1.099 | 0.758 | 1.084 | 0.790 | 0.882 | 0.635 | 0.890 | 0.661 | Increase |
| Poor subjective financial situation | 1.126 | 0.772 | 1.150 | 0.734 | 1.119 | 0.784 | 1.101 | 0.815 | 0.858 | 0.659 | 0.861 | 0.668 | Increase |
| Number of months partner worked from home | 0.994 | 0.849 | 0.992 | 0.796 | 0.990 | 0.749 | 0.993 | 0.807 | 1.013 | 0.612 | 1.013 | 0.598 | Increase |
| Change in HBW (ref. No access—No access) | Increase | ||||||||||||
| No access—access | 1.487 | 0.263 | 1.274 | 0.554 | 2.357 | 0.127 | 1.580 | 0.361 | 1.037 | 0.927 | 0.860 | 0.762 | Increase |
| Access—access ( +) | 0.783 | 0.463 | 0.664 | 0.278 | 1.613 | 0.387 | 0.543 | 0.202 | 1.537 | 0.173 | 1.395 | 0.334 | Increase |
| Child care burden | 1.003 | 0.972 | 1.007 | 0.927 | 1.005 | 0.945 | 0.959 | 0.670 | 1.191 | 0.016 | 1.191 | 0.016 | Increase |
| Worsened financial situation | 0.793 | 0.511 | 0.584 | 0.233 | 0.791 | 0.503 | 0.785 | 0.495 | 2.035 | 0.015 | 1.750 | 0.106 | Increase |
| Non-professional or non-managerial position | 0.968 | 0.911 | 0.962 | 0.895 | 1.581 | 0.314 | 0.962 | 0.894 | 1.002 | 0.994 | 0.998 | 0.994 | Increase |
| Interaction: Change in HBW & Worsened financial situation | Increase | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Worsened fin sit | 1.807 | 0.429 | 1.648 | 0.522 | Increase | ||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Worsened fin sit | 2.042 | 0.339 | 1.624 | 0.492 | Increase | ||||||||
| Interaction: Change in HBW & Non-prof. or non-manag. position | Increase | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Non-prof./Non-manag. position | 0.525 | 0.372 | Increase | ||||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Non-prof./Non-manag. Position | 0.319 | 0.105 | Increase | ||||||||||
| Interaction: Change in HBW & Childcare burden | Increase | ||||||||||||
| No access—access & Childcare burden | 0.974 | 0.887 | Increase | ||||||||||
| Access—access ( +) & Childcare burden | 1.206 | 0.262 | Increase | ||||||||||
| Observations | 814 | 814 | 814 | 814 | 877 | 877 | |||||||
| R2 Nagelkerke | 0.179 | 0.191 | 0.184 | 0.183 | 0.169 | 0.172 | |||||||
For the bolded values of coefficients p < 0.05
Source: Own calculations based on Polish Familydemic Dataset