Table 6.
Description and source of evidence for the parameters used in the rose distribution model
| Parameter | Description | Source | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCMcommercial, NUTS2, Season FCMhousehold, NUTS2, Season | Number of T. leucotreta individuals ending in commercial or household waste in a NUTS2 region climatically suitable during a specific season | Calculated | |
| AF | African countries and Israel with reported occurrence of T. leucotreta | EPPO Global Database (Appendix A, Section A.2) | Strata |
| EURA | European countries/clusters with areas climatically suitable/under risk | Countries with at least one NUTS2 region with a climate suitability classification by the physiologically based demographic model above 0 (Appendix A, Section A.3) | Strata |
| NUTS2 | NUTS2 regions climatically suitable | NUTS2 regions with at least one grid cell with a climate suitability classification by the physiologically based demographic model above 0 (Appendix A, Section A.3) | Strata |
| NLBE | Cluster of re‐exporting countries: the Netherlands/Belgium | Annual trade of cut flowers from 2011 to 2020 (Appendix A, Section A.5) | Strata |
| DELU | Cluster of re‐exporting countries: Germany/Luxembourg | Annual trade of cut flowers from 2011 to 2020 (Appendix A, Section A.6) | Strata |
| Season | Stratification by season: winter, spring, summer, autumn; or total | Strata | |
| TradeAF‐EURA, Season | Direct trade of cut roses from AF to European climatically suitable countries/clusters (Unit: [pcs]) | Eurostat monthly trade of cut roses (CN 03061100) in 2011–2020 (Appendix A, Section A.4) | NORMAL |
| PopulationNUTS2/EURA | Proportion of the human population in the NUTS2 region climatically suitable in relation to the whole country or cluster (Unit: [−]) | Eurostat population 1 January 2020 (Appendix A, Section A.4.2) | CONSTANT |
| Grading | Proportion of direct imported cut roses, which on average is discarded due to quality issues (Unit: [−]) | Default value (Appendix A, Section A.4.4) | UNIFORM |
| TradeAF➔NLBE, Season TradeAF➔DELU, Season | Trade of cut roses from AF to the European re‐exporting clusters in a specific season (Unit: [pcs]) | Eurostat monthly trade of cut roses (CN 03061100) in 2011–2020 (Appendix A, Sections A.5, A.6) | NORMAL |
| TradeOthers➔NLBE, Season TradeOthers➔DELU, Season | Trade of cut roses from other countries to the European re‐exporting clusters in a specific season (Unit: [pcs]) | Eurostat monthly trade of cut roses (CN 03061100) in 2011–2020 (Appendix A, Sections A.5, A.6) | NORMAL |
| ProductionNLBE, Season ProductionDELU, Season | Average production of cut roses in European re‐exporting clusters in a specific season (Unit: [pcs]) | Calculated | |
| AreaNL AreaDE | Average, annual area for the production of cut roses in specific MS (Unit: [ha]) | National statistics on cut roses production surface | CONSTANT |
| ExtrapolationNL➔NLBE ExtrapolationDE➔DELU | Extrapolation from national production area to the area in a re‐exporting cluster (Unit: [−]) | Eurostat farm structure | CONSTANT |
| Conversionha➔pcs | Productivity of cut roses (Unit: [pcs/ha]) | Productivity of different roses | CONSTANT |
| ProportionSeason/Total | Proportion of cut roses produced in the re‐exporting clusters in a specific season compared to the annual production | Default value: equally distributed | CONSTANT |
| DilutionNLBE,Season DilutionDELU,Season | Dilution of T. leucotreta‐infested cut roses, imported from Africa and Israel, by other imports and own production in a specific re‐exporting cluster and season (Unit: [−]) | Calculated for scenarios without/with Intra‐EU trade | UNIFORM |
| InfestationAF | Average infestation rate of cut roses from AF (Unit: [−]) | EKE question 2 (Appendix A, Section A.7) | GENERALBETA |