Table A.2.
Number of Thaumatotibia leucotreta adults escaping within a year from cut roses imported from Africa (including Israel) calculated by a pathway model for NUTS2 regions in the climatically suitable area of Europe. Results are stratified by waste treated by private compost and waste treated after communal collection with four scenarios of timing from disposal at the consumer until the waste treatment. Values are given as median and 90% certainty interval (from P5 to P95)
| NUTS code | Label | Climate suitability class | Annual escape from private compost | Annual escape from collected waste (3 days) | Annual escape from collected waste (7 days) | Annual escape from collected waste (14 days) | Annual escape from collected waste (28 days) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Adults/year) | (Adults/year) | (Adults/year) | (Adults/year) | (Adults/year) | ||||||||||||||
| P5 | Median | P95 | P5 | Median | P95 | P5 | Median | P95 | P5 | Median | P95 | P5 | Median | P95 | ||||
| Spain & Portugal | ESPT | Spain and Portugal | ||||||||||||||||
| ES11 | Galicia | 1 | 12 | 135 | 791 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 30 | 84 | 24 | 160 | 451 | |
| ES12 | Principado de Asturias | 1 | 4 | 51 | 298 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 9 | 60 | 170 | |
| ES13 | Cantabria | 1 | 3 | 29 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 35 | 97 | |
| ES21 | País Vasco | 1 | 10 | 109 | 641 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 24 | 68 | 20 | 130 | 365 | |
| ES22 | Comunidad Foral de Navarra | 1 | 3 | 33 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 39 | 110 | |
| ES23 | La Rioja | 1 | 1 | 16 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 53 | |
| ES24 | Aragón | 1 | 6 | 66 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 41 | 12 | 79 | 222 | |
| ES30 | Comunidad de Madrid | 1 | 29 | 336 | 1,976 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 12 | 75 | 210 | 60 | 400 | 1,126 | |
| ES41 | Castilla y León | 1 | 10 | 120 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 22 | 142 | 401 | |
| ES42 | Castilla‐la Mancha | 2 | 9 | 102 | 599 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 40 | 112 | 25 | 165 | 459 | |
| ES43 | Extremadura | 2 | 5 | 53 | 311 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 58 | 13 | 86 | 238 | |
| ES51 | Cataluña | 2 | 33 | 381 | 2,241 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 23 | 151 | 418 | 93 | 618 | 1,717 | |
| ES52 | Comunitat Valenciana | 3 | 22 | 251 | 1,473 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 27 | 72 | 28 | 181 | 501 | 96 | 639 | 1,764 | |
| ES53 | Illes Balears | 2 | 5 | 60 | 355 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 24 | 66 | 15 | 98 | 272 | |
| ES61 | Andalucía | 4 | 37 | 423 | 2,483 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 9 | 51 | 138 | 52 | 336 | 931 | 187 | 1,259 | 3,530 | |
| ES62 | Región de Murcia | 3 | 7 | 75 | 441 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 54 | 150 | 29 | 191 | 528 | |
| ES63 | Ciudad de Ceuta | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 29 | |
| ES64 | Ciudad de Melilla | 2 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | |
| PT11 | Norte | 2 | 16 | 178 | 1,047 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 11 | 70 | 195 | 44 | 289 | 802 | |
| PT15 | Algarve | 3 | 2 | 22 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 44 | 8 | 56 | 154 | |
| PT16 | Centro (PT) | 3 | 10 | 111 | 649 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 12 | 80 | 221 | 43 | 282 | 778 | |
| PT17 | Área Metropolitana de Lisboa | 3 | 12 | 143 | 838 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 16 | 103 | 285 | 55 | 364 | 1,004 | |
| PT18 | Alentejo | 3 | 3 | 35 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 25 | 70 | 14 | 90 | 247 | |
| France | FR | France | ||||||||||||||||
| FRG0 | Pays‐de‐la‐Loire | 1 | 261 | 2,689 | 12,975 | 17 | 46 | 95 | 38 | 164 | 419 | 131 | 783 | 2,108 | 626 | 4,161 | 11,324 | |
| FRH0 | Bretagne | 1 | 230 | 2,365 | 11,412 | 15 | 40 | 84 | 34 | 144 | 369 | 115 | 689 | 1,854 | 551 | 3,660 | 9,960 | |
| FRI1 | Aquitaine | 1 | 238 | 2,449 | 11,820 | 15 | 42 | 87 | 35 | 150 | 382 | 119 | 713 | 1,920 | 571 | 3,791 | 10,316 | |
| FRI3 | Poitou‐Charentes | 1 | 124 | 1,277 | 6,163 | 8 | 22 | 45 | 18 | 78 | 199 | 62 | 372 | 1,001 | 297 | 1,976 | 5,379 | |
| FRJ1 | Languedoc‐Roussillon | 1 | 196 | 2,017 | 9,735 | 13 | 34 | 71 | 29 | 123 | 315 | 98 | 588 | 1,581 | 470 | 3,122 | 8,496 | |
| FRJ2 | Midi‐Pyrénées | 1 | 211 | 2,174 | 10,490 | 14 | 37 | 77 | 31 | 133 | 339 | 106 | 633 | 1,704 | 506 | 3,364 | 9,155 | |
| FRK2 | Rhône‐Alpes | 1 | 458 | 4,712 | 22,741 | 30 | 80 | 167 | 67 | 288 | 735 | 229 | 1,373 | 3,694 | 1,098 | 7,293 | 19,847 | |
| FRL0 | Provence‐Alpes‐Côte d'Azur | 1 | 347 | 3,575 | 17,254 | 23 | 61 | 127 | 51 | 218 | 558 | 174 | 1,041 | 2,803 | 833 | 5,534 | 15,058 | |
| FRM0 | Corse | 1 | 24 | 244 | 1,175 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 12 | 71 | 191 | 57 | 377 | 1,026 | |
| Italy & Malta | ITMT | Italy and Malta | ||||||||||||||||
| ITC1 | Piemonte | 1 | 126 | 1,298 | 6,235 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 13 | 68 | 176 | 54 | 341 | 910 | 277 | 1,833 | 4,912 | |
| ITC3 | Liguria | 1 | 44 | 459 | 2,205 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 19 | 121 | 322 | 98 | 648 | 1,737 | |
| ITC4 | Lombardia | 1 | 292 | 3,019 | 14,503 | 11 | 35 | 80 | 30 | 158 | 409 | 125 | 793 | 2,117 | 643 | 4,263 | 11,426 | |
| ITF1 | Abruzzo | 1 | 38 | 390 | 1,871 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 16 | 102 | 273 | 83 | 550 | 1,474 | |
| ITF2 | Molise | 1 | 9 | 90 | 435 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 24 | 63 | 19 | 128 | 342 | |
| ITF3 | Campania | 2 | 166 | 1,720 | 8,262 | 9 | 29 | 66 | 26 | 135 | 348 | 125 | 802 | 2,133 | 500 | 3,310 | 8,778 | |
| ITF4 | Puglia | 2 | 115 | 1,190 | 5,718 | 7 | 20 | 45 | 18 | 93 | 241 | 87 | 555 | 1,476 | 346 | 2,291 | 6,075 | |
| ITF5 | Basilicata | 1 | 16 | 167 | 800 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 7 | 44 | 117 | 35 | 235 | 630 | |
| ITF6 | Calabria | 2 | 55 | 570 | 2,740 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 9 | 45 | 115 | 42 | 266 | 707 | 166 | 1,097 | 2,911 | |
| ITG1 | Sicilia | 3 | 142 | 1,468 | 7,051 | 12 | 36 | 82 | 35 | 182 | 470 | 195 | 1,257 | 3,322 | 669 | 4,432 | 11,788 | |
| ITG2 | Sardegna | 2 | 47 | 485 | 2,331 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 7 | 38 | 98 | 35 | 226 | 602 | 141 | 934 | 2,477 | |
| ITH2 | Provincia Autonoma di Trento | 1 | 16 | 164 | 789 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 43 | 115 | 35 | 232 | 621 | |
| ITH3 | Veneto | 1 | 142 | 1,469 | 7,057 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 15 | 77 | 199 | 61 | 386 | 1,030 | 313 | 2,074 | 5,559 | |
| ITH4 | Friuli‐Venezia Giulia | 1 | 35 | 363 | 1,745 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 49 | 15 | 95 | 255 | 77 | 513 | 1,374 | |
| ITH5 | Emilia‐Romagna | 1 | 130 | 1,344 | 6,457 | 5 | 16 | 36 | 14 | 70 | 182 | 56 | 353 | 942 | 286 | 1,898 | 5,087 | |
| ITI1 | Toscana | 2 | 108 | 1,112 | 5,341 | 6 | 19 | 42 | 17 | 87 | 225 | 81 | 518 | 1,379 | 323 | 2,140 | 5,674 | |
| ITI2 | Umbria | 1 | 25 | 262 | 1,259 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 35 | 11 | 69 | 184 | 56 | 370 | 991 | |
| ITI3 | Marche | 1 | 44 | 455 | 2,188 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 19 | 120 | 319 | 97 | 643 | 1,724 | |
| ITI4 | Lazio | 2 | 168 | 1,733 | 8,325 | 10 | 29 | 66 | 26 | 136 | 351 | 126 | 808 | 2,149 | 503 | 3,335 | 8,845 | |
| MT00 | Malta | 2 | 15 | 155 | 744 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 12 | 73 | 193 | 45 | 299 | 792 | |
| Slovenia | SI | Slovenia | ||||||||||||||||
| SI03 | Vzhodna Slovenija | 1 | 22 | 226 | 1,085 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 10 | 65 | 175 | 52 | 352 | 943 | |
| SI04 | Zahodna Slovenija | 1 | 20 | 205 | 983 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 59 | 159 | 48 | 319 | 854 | |
| Croatia | HR | Croatia | ||||||||||||||||
| HR02 | Pannonian Croatia | 1 | 20 | 222 | 1,142 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 7 | 64 | 223 | 36 | 344 | 1,203 | |
| HR03 | Adriatic Croatia | 1 | 26 | 283 | 1,452 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 55 | 9 | 81 | 284 | 46 | 438 | 1,530 | |
| HR05 | City of Zagreb | 1 | 15 | 167 | 857 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 5 | 48 | 168 | 27 | 258 | 903 | |
| HR06 | Northern Croatia | 1 | 16 | 171 | 879 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 5 | 49 | 172 | 28 | 265 | 926 | |
| Greece & Cyprus | Greece and Cyprus | |||||||||||||||||
| EL30 | Attiki | 3 | 41 | 431 | 2,096 | 31 | 71 | 132 | 48 | 113 | 226 | 104 | 408 | 1,093 | 235 | 1,264 | 3,493 | |
| EL41 | Voreio Aigaio | 2 | 3 | 26 | 129 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 38 | 9 | 50 | 144 | |
| EL42 | Notio Aigaio | 2 | 4 | 40 | 195 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 22 | 58 | 14 | 76 | 217 | |
| EL43 | Kriti | 3 | 7 | 73 | 357 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 18 | 69 | 186 | 40 | 215 | 595 | |
| EL51 | Anatoliki Makedonia, Thraki | 1 | 7 | 69 | 336 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 60 | 17 | 97 | 293 | |
| EL52 | Kentriki Makedonia | 1 | 21 | 216 | 1,049 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 10 | 27 | 55 | 19 | 69 | 187 | 53 | 304 | 916 | |
| EL53 | Dytiki Makedonia | 1 | 3 | 30 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 7 | 43 | 130 | |
| EL54 | Ipeiros | 2 | 4 | 38 | 187 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 21 | 55 | 13 | 73 | 208 | |
| EL61 | Thessalia | 1 | 8 | 82 | 401 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 27 | 71 | 20 | 116 | 350 | |
| EL62 | Ionia Nisia | 2 | 2 | 23 | 114 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 8 | 45 | 127 | |
| EL63 | Dytiki Ellada | 2 | 7 | 75 | 365 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 11 | 40 | 108 | 26 | 143 | 407 | |
| EL64 | Sterea Ellada | 2 | 6 | 64 | 312 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 9 | 35 | 92 | 22 | 122 | 348 | |
| EL65 | Peloponnisos | 3 | 6 | 66 | 321 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 16 | 62 | 167 | 36 | 193 | 535 | |
| CY00 | Kypros | 2 | 10 | 102 | 498 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 15 | 55 | 148 | 36 | 195 | 555 | |
| Hungary | HU | Hungary | ||||||||||||||||
| HU12 | Pest | 1 | 18 | 191 | 928 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 9 | 57 | 157 | 46 | 309 | 849 | |
| HU23 | Dél‐Dunántúl | 1 | 12 | 129 | 626 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 6 | 39 | 106 | 31 | 209 | 572 | |
| HU31 | Észak‐Magyarország | 1 | 16 | 165 | 801 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 7 | 50 | 136 | 40 | 267 | 732 | |
| HU32 | Észak‐Alföld | 1 | 21 | 213 | 1,033 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 9 | 64 | 175 | 51 | 344 | 944 | |
| HU33 | Dél‐Alföld | 1 | 17 | 182 | 881 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 8 | 55 | 149 | 44 | 294 | 806 | |
| Bulgaria | BG | Bulgaria | ||||||||||||||||
| BG31 | Severozapaden | 1 | 4 | 42 | 209 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 9 | 64 | 217 | |
| BG32 | Severen tsentralen | 1 | 4 | 44 | 222 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 10 | 68 | 230 | |
| BG33 | Severoiztochen | 1 | 5 | 53 | 265 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 17 | 53 | 11 | 81 | 275 | |
| BG34 | Yugoiztochen | 1 | 6 | 59 | 294 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 59 | 13 | 89 | 305 | |
| BG41 | Yugozapaden | 1 | 12 | 120 | 601 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 8 | 38 | 120 | 26 | 183 | 623 | |
| BG42 | Yuzhen tsentralen | 1 | 8 | 81 | 404 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 25 | 80 | 17 | 123 | 418 | |
| Romania | RO | Romania | ||||||||||||||||
| RO11 | Nord‐Vest | 1 | 36 | 400 | 2,135 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 25 | 91 | 12 | 118 | 463 | 55 | 624 | 2,475 | |
| RO22 | Sud‐Est | 1 | 34 | 373 | 1,992 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 23 | 85 | 11 | 110 | 432 | 51 | 582 | 2,309 | |
| RO31 | Sud ‐ Muntenia | 1 | 42 | 455 | 2,432 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 5 | 28 | 103 | 14 | 134 | 527 | 63 | 710 | 2,819 | |
| RO32 | Bucuresti ‐ Ilfov | 1 | 33 | 364 | 1,946 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 23 | 83 | 11 | 107 | 422 | 50 | 568 | 2,256 | |
| RO41 | Sud‐Vest Oltenia | 1 | 27 | 300 | 1,601 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 9 | 88 | 347 | 41 | 468 | 1,856 | |
| RO42 | Vest | 1 | 25 | 278 | 1,485 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 8 | 82 | 322 | 38 | 434 | 1,721 | |