Table A.80.

Result report on EKE question 2

Overview of the results of the Expert Knowledge Elicitation Question 2
Parameter	Infestation rate of cut roses imported from Africa at border
Stratification	None (Total import from Africa)
Question	What is the proportion of cut roses (stems) imported from any African country, which are infested with any life stage of FCM directly after entering the EU for trade?
Unit	[%]
Results	P1%	P2.5%	P5%	P10%	P16.7%	P25%	P33.3%	P50%	P66.7%	P75%	P83.3%	P90%	P95%	P97.5%	P99%
Elicited values	0.01%					0.12%		0.20%		0.35%					0.65%
EKE results	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.11%	0.14%	0.21%	0.29%	0.34%	0.40%	0.46%	0.54%	0.59%	0.65%
Fitted distribution	BetaG .00835)
Figure (a): Comparison of elicited and fitted values/density function to describe the remaining uncertainties of the parameter							Figure (b): Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the likelihood of the parameter

Summary of the evidence used for the evaluation
Kenyan Systems Approach and working instructions indicate a control before export with a sample size of 700 roses/stems. This (700 stems per sample unit) would result in an 95% CI for the infestation rate of (0–0.43%) Interceptions recognised by the Dutch border control, including control density
Main uncertainties
Variation in trade, incl. size of consignments, different sampling numbers Calculations are done under the assumption that one specimen corresponds to one rose Calculations are limited to four countries and import only to NL Calculations are only for 4 years 2018–2021 Number of specimens per consignment is unclear, as control may stop after the first finding(s) The effectiveness of the border control is unclear, including the level of detection Clustering of infestations in a consignment is unclear
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable high proportion	The judgement on the upper limit considers that Infestation is not clustered, but widespread in a consignment High level of detection, low effectiveness of the border control, limited sampling, stop after first finding(s) Non‐rejected consignments are contaminated (up to the detection level) More recent years have lower infestation rates
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable low proportion	The judgement on the lower limit considers that Non‐rejected consignments are free from FCM/low level of detection, high effectiveness of the border control Smaller consignments have a higher inspection rate/other countries have complete inspection Infestation is clustered, thus max. 3 specimens indicated low infestation rate Multiple specimens per rose would lead to lower infestation rate Recent years have higher infestation rates as the average
Fair estimate as judgement on the weighted evidence	The judgement on the median considers that While high infestation rates cannot be excluded is the median infestation on the lower part of the range
Precision of the judgement as description of remaining uncertainties	The judgement on the interquartile range considers that High uncertainty on infestation rates below the median Medium uncertainty on infestation rates above the median
Experts	Antoon LOOMANS, Panos MILONAS, Klara NICOVA, Stella PAPANASTASIOU, Giuseppe STANCANELLI, Hans‐Hermann THULKE
Facilitator/Reporter	Olaf MOSBACH‐SCHULZ (facilitator)
Observers	na
Date and place of the EKE	Virtual meeting on 12 December 2022