Table A.90.

report on EKE question 4a

Overview of the results of the Expert Knowledge Elicitation Question 4a
Parameter	Survival rate of FCM in household waste going to landfill
Stratification
Question	Assuming infestation of cut roses at the beginning of the waste treatment with later larval stages and pupae. What is the proportion of FCM which will develop to an adult and escape the waste treatment (landfill)?
Unit	[Escape out of 10,000]
Results	P1%	P2.5%	P5%	P10%	P16.7%	P25%	P33.3%	P50%	P66.7%	P75%	P83.3%	P90%	P95%	P97.5%	P99%
Elicited values	0														10
EKE results	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0	1.7	2.5	3.4	5.1	6.7	7.6	8.4	9.1	9.6	9.8	10.0
Fitted distribution	Uniform (0, 0.00101)
Figure (a): Comparison of elicited and fitted values/density function to describe the remaining uncertainties of the parameter							Figure (b): Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the likelihood of the parameter

Summary of the evidence used for the evaluation
Literature on effects of waste treatments on insects, e.g. Soderstrom et al. (1990), Ali Ahmed et al. (2007), Baughman et al. (2015), Love et al. (2019) Conditions of regular landfill
Main uncertainties
Possibility of larvae to move in soil, effect of land cover Effect of compaction, pressure esp. on pupae
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable high proportion	The judgement on the upper limit considers that Thaumatotibia leucotreta in late pupa stage Escape before covering with new soil, waste No effect on compaction (cp. Love et al. 2019) Only deep burying (thicker than 46 cm) is effective In parts of landfill, which is not regularly treated by covering, etc.
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable low proportion	The judgement on the lower limit considers that Regular procedure of landfill Treatment with compaction and coverage is effective to inhibit escape Coverage thicker than possible movement of larvae, e.g. 5 cm vertically
Fair estimate as judgement on the weighted evidence	The judgement on the median considers that Due to missing knowledge on implemented landfill processes maximum uncertainties in the credible range (L–U)
Precision of the judgement as description of remaining uncertainties	The judgement on the interquartile range considers that Due to missing knowledge on implemented landfill processes maximum uncertainties in the credible range (L–U)
Experts	Antoon LOOMANS, Panos MILONAS, Klara NICOVA, Stella PAPANASTASIOU, Giuseppe STANCANELLI, Hans‐Hermann THULKE
Facilitator/Reporter	Olaf MOSBACH‐SCHULZ (facilitator)
Observers	Na
Date and place of the EKE	Virtual meeting on 9 January 2023