Table A.92.

Result report on EKE question 4c

Overview of the results of the Expert Knowledge Elicitation Question 4c
Parameter	Survival rate of FCM in household waste going to incineration or anaerobic digestion
Stratification
Question	Assuming infestation of cut roses at the beginning of the waste treatment with later larval stages and pupae. What is the proportion of FCM which will develop to an adult and escape the waste treatment (incineration or anaerobic digestion)?
Unit	[Escape out of 10,000]
Results	P1%	P2.5%	P5%	P10%	P16.7%	P25%	P33.3%	P50%	P66.7%	P75%	P83.3%	P90%	P95%	P97.5%	P99%
Elicited values	0														0
EKE results	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fitted distribution	Constant(0)
Figure (a): Comparison of elicited and fitted values/density function to describe the remaining uncertainties of the parameter							Figure (b): Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the likelihood of the parameter

Summary of the evidence used for the evaluation
Literature on effects of waste treatments on insects, e.g. Soderstrom et al (1990), Ali Ahmed et al. (2007), Baughman et al. (2015), Love et al (2019) Conditions of regular incineration/anaerobic digestion, esp. fermentation, heat treatment and exchange of atmosphere (higher CO2)
Main uncertainties
Effect of lower temperatures, duration and completeness of fermentation Due to the closure of the process, it is considered as process with 100% mortality
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable high proportion	The judgement on the upper limit considers that Material is complete fermented or burned, same as low value
Reasoning for a scenario which would lead to a reasonable low proportion	The judgement on the lower limit considers that Regular procedure of incineration, or anaerobic digestion, incl. high temperatures, exchanged atmosphere, complete closure Treatment is effective to kill the eggs, larvae and pupae; and/or inhibit escape
Fair estimate as judgement on the weighted evidence	The judgement on the median considers that Complete 100% mortality
Precision of the judgement as description of remaining uncertainties	The judgement on the interquartile range considers that No uncertainties
Experts	Antoon LOOMANS, Panos MILONAS, Klara NICOVA, Stella PAPANASTASIOU, Giuseppe STANCANELLI, Hans‐Hermann THULKE
Facilitator/Reporter	Olaf MOSBACH‐SCHULZ (facilitator)
Observers	na
Date and place of the EKE	Virtual meeting on 9 January 2023