Table 2.
Projected high temperature-attributable burden of kidney disease for future periods centred on 2030, and 2050 (annual average number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)), and the projected percentage change (%) compared to the baseline (2003–2018), under scenarios of constant population and medium population growth, adaptation to climate change (none, partial, full), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Estimates are the mean across eight climate models.
| RCPs | State/territory | Projected burden of kidney disease attributable to high temperature, DALYs (%)a |
|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant population |
Medium population growth (Series B projection) |
||||||||||||
| No adaptation |
Partial adaptation |
Full adaptation |
No adaptation |
Partial adaptation |
Full adaptation |
||||||||
| 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | ||
| 4.5 | NSW | 165.7 (16.8%) | 192.5 (35.7%) | 155.6 (9.7%) | 168.2 (18.5%) | 147.2 (3.8%) | 146.1 (2.9%) | 257.2 (81.3%) | 397.4 (180.1%) | 242.0 (70.6%) | 347.8 (145.2%) | 229.1 (61.5%) | 302.2 (113.0%) |
| Qld | 552.2 (28.9%) | 682.3 (59.2%) | 474.2 (10.6%) | 537.9 (25.5%) | 404.8 (−5.5%) | 407.8 (−4.8%) | 978.0 (128.2%) | 1671.2 (290.0%) | 839.6 (95.9%) | 1319.3 (207.8%) | 717.7 (67.5%) | 1000.9 (133.6%) | |
| Vic | 584.2 (1.9%) | 651.8 (13.7%) | 584.9 (2.0%) | 621.7 (8.4%) | 588.1 (2.6%) | 590.7 (3.0%) | 1010.0 (76.1%) | 1610.0 (180.8%) | 1011.2 (76.3%) | 1537.1 (168.0%) | 1017.8 (77.5%) | 1460.4 (154.7%) | |
| WA | 102.9 (14.2%) | 114.9 (27.5%) | 93.6 (3.8%) | 99.0 (9.8%) | 87.7 (−2.7%) | 86.4 (−4.2%) | 178.0 (97.4%) | 283.9 (214.8%) | 161.4 (79.0%) | 244.3 (171.0%) | 151.5 (68.0%) | 213.0 (136.3%) | |
| SA | 17.9 (3.4%) | 19.3 (11.7%) | 17.5 (1.7%) | 18.2 (5.6%) | 17.2 (−0.4%) | 17.3 (−0.04%) | 25.4 (47.2%) | 33.0 (91.0%) | 25.0 (44.8%) | 31.2 (80.6%) | 24.5 (42.0%) | 29.5 (71.1%) | |
| Tas | 37.7 (3.1%) | 44.6 (22.0%) | 34.9 (−4.4%) | 38.3 (4.7%) | 33.0 (−9.8%) | 33.5 (−8.3%) | 57.6 (57.6%) | 78.2 (114.0%) | 53.4 (46.2%) | 67.2 (83.8%) | 50.5 (38.1%) | 58.9 (61.0%) | |
| ACT | 31.0 (6.0%) | 35.0 (19.9%) | 31.2 (7.0%) | 33.5 (14.7%) | 31.0 (6.1%) | 32.3 (10.7%) | 61.0 (108.6%) | 98.9 (238.7%) | 61.3 (110.1%) | 94.6 (224.0%) | 60.7 (108.0%) | 91.1 (212.0%) | |
| NT | 221.1 (70.4% | 292.7 (125.5%) | 174.9 (34.8%) | 200.4 (54.4%) | 127.6 (−1.7%) | 128.0 (−1.3%) | 329.0 (153.5%) | 586.4 (351.9%) | 259.8 (100.2%) | 399.1 (207.5%) | 188.5 (45.2%) | 253.8 (95.6%) | |
| National | 1712.6 (18.4%) | 2033.1 (40.5%) | 1566.9 (8.3%) | 1717.2 (18.7%) | 1436.6 (−0.7%) | 1422.0 (−0.3%) | 2896.1 (100.2%) | 4759.1 (228.9%) | 2653.7 (83.4%) | 4040.7 (179.3%) | 2440.2 (68.7%) | 3409.9 (135.7%) | |
| 8.5 | NSW | 175.5 (23.7%) | 230.3 (62.3%) | 155.9 (9.9%) | 184.7 (30.2%) | 146.6 (3.3%) | 145.5 (2.6%) | 272.4 (92.0%) | 475.2 (234.9%) | 242.4 (70.9%) | 381.6 (168.9%) | 228.2 (60.8%) | 301.3 (112.4%) |
| Qld | 618.9 (44.4%) | 852.5 (98.9%) | 466.7 (8.9%) | 612.5 (42.9%) | 402.6 (−6.1%) | 405.7 (−5.3%) | 1094.9 (155.5%) | 2085.4 (386.6%) | 826.6 (92.9%) | 1500.5 (250.1%) | 714.2 (66.6%) | 995.8 (132.3%) | |
| Vic | 605.0 (5.5%) | 729.7 (27.2%) | 597.4 (4.2%) | 653.3 (13.9%) | 585.8 (2.1%) | 580.6 (1.2%) | 1046.3 (82.5%) | 1801.6 (214.2%) | 1034.1 (80.3%) | 1615.1 (181.7%) | 1014.5 (76.9%) | 1435.7 (150.4%) | |
| WA | 104.5 (15.9%) | 135.4 (50.2%) | 90.6 (0.5%) | 108.4 (20.2%) | 86.6 (−4.0%) | 86.4 (−4.2%) | 180.5 (100.2%) | 333.2 (269.5%) | 156.3 (73.3%) | 267.1 (196.3%) | 149.2 (65.5%) | 213.3 (136.5%) | |
| SA | 18.4 (6.5%) | 21.3 (23.5%) | 17.6 (2.2%) | 19.1 (10.9%) | 17.2 (−0.2%) | 17.2 (−0.3%) | 26.2 (51.6%) | 36.5 (111.2%) | 25.2 (45.7%) | 32.7 (89.7%) | 24.6 (42.3%) | 29.5 (70.6%) | |
| Tas | 40.1 (9.6%) | 49.4 (35.0%) | 35.1 (−4.1%) | 40.5 (10.7%) | 32.8 (−10.1) | 33.7 (−7.9%) | 61.3 (67.7%) | 86.6 (137.0%) | 53.7 (46.9%) | 71.1 (94.4%) | 50.3 (37.7%) | 59.1 (61.7%) | |
| ACT | 32.3 (10.5%) | 41.0 (40.4%) | 31.5 (8.0%) | 36.0 (23.2%) | 30.8 (5.6%) | 30.9 (5.9%) | 63.6 (117.7%) | 115.9 (296.8%) | 61.9 (112.1%) | 101.5 (247.7%) | 60.5 (107.1%) | 87.6 (199.9%) | |
| NT | 241.9 (86.4%) | 362.4 (179.3%) | 149.5 (15.2%) | 231.2 (78.2%) | 122.3 (−5.8%) | 124.8 (−3.9%) | 360.7 (177.9%) | 726.0 (459.4%) | 221.2 (70.4%) | 460.5 (254.8%) | 180.1 (38.7%) | 247.6 (90.8%) | |
| National | 1836.6 (26.9%) | 2422.0 (67.4%) | 1544.2 (6.7%) | 1885.6 (30.3%) | 1424.7 (−1.5%) | 1424.8 (−1.5%) | 3105.8 (114.7%) | 5660.4 (291.2%) | 2621.3 (81.3%) | 4430.2 (206.2) | 2421.4 (67.4%) | 3369.8 (132.9%) | |
The bold numbers indicate over 200% increases of the projected percentage change (%) relative to the baseline value.
NSW, New South Wales; Qld, Queensland; Vic, Victoria; WA, Western Australia; SA, South Australia; Tas, Tasmania; ACT, Australian Capital Territory; NT, Northern Territory.
a
Annual average value across periods.