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[Preprint]. 2024 May 22:2023.10.02.23296453. Originally published 2023 Oct 3. [Version 2] doi: 10.1101/2023.10.02.23296453

Figure 5 – figure supplement 3. Influenza A(H3N2) epidemic onsets and peaks are earlier in seasons with high antigenic novelty, but correlations are not statistically significant.

Figure 5 – figure supplement 3.

A. Epidemic onsets are earlier in seasons with increased H3 epitope distance (t − 2), but the correlation is not statistically significant. B. Epidemic peaks are earlier in seasons with increased H3 epitope distance (t − 2) and N2 epitope distance (t − 1), but correlations are not statistically significant. Seasonal epitope distance is the mean distance between strains circulating in season t and those circulating in the prior season (t − 1) or two seasons ago (t − 2). Distances are scaled to aid in direct comparison of evolutionary indicators. Point color indicates the dominant influenza A subtype based on CDC influenza season summary reports (red: A(H3N2), blue: A(H1N1), purple: A(H1N1)pdm09, orange: A(H3N2)/A(H1N1)pdm09 co-dominant). Seasonal mean epidemic onsets and peaks were fit as a function of H3 or N2 epitope distance using Gaussian GLMs (inverse link) with 1000 bootstrap resamples.