Table 5.
Observed and predicted influenza-like illness values under the counterfactual scenario by non-pharmaceutical period
| 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week noa,b | W4–10 | W11–16 | W17–33 | W34–41 | W42–47 | W48–6 | W7–27 | W28–43 | W44–47 | W48–52 | |
| 20.1.19–2.7 | 2.8–2.18 | 2.19–8.15 | 8.16–10.10 | 10.11–11.21 | 20.11.22–21.2.13 | 2.14–7.10 | 7.11–10.30 | 10.31– 11.27 | 11.28- 12.31 | ||
|
ILI observed |
Mean | 16.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Median | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | |
| IQR | 14.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | |
|
ILI predicted |
Mean | 22.2 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 39.9 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 51.7 |
| Median | 24.9 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 37.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 62.5 | |
| IQR | 13.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 31.7 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 23.4 | |
| ILI % changec | -25.55 | -69.34 | -61.18 | -61.34 | -55.06 | -93.83 | -75.66 | -70.23 | -58.10 | -95.12 | |
|
Average COVID-19 cased |
1108 | 490 | 316 | 1103 | 1132 | 4439 | 4141 | 12,419 | 20,424 | 39,460 | |
aW1–3: Before COVID-19, W4–10: first case confirmed, alert level red, W11–16: pandemic declared, social distancing (SD), W16–33: relaxed SD, distancing in daily life, Level 1 SD, W34–41: Level 2 SD, W42–47: Level 1,1.5 SD, W48–6: Level 2, 2 + a, 2.5 SD
W7–27: Level 2 SD, W28–43: Level 4 SD, W44–47: Step-by-step daily recovery, W48–52: Special quarantine measures
bA detailed summary of social distancing is provided in Table S1
cInfluenza-like illness (ILI) percentage change = 100 × (observed- predicted)/predicted
dAverage COVID-19 cases: Average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea