Why carry out this study?

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common complication of pregnancy, and the prevalence of GDM has increased in the past few years. However, a feasible method to screen GDM risk in early pregnancy is lacking.

We aimed to develop a convenient clinical prediction model to identify pregnant women at high risk of GDM in early pregnancy that could be applicable in most areas of China.

What was learned from the study?

Three clinical characteristics (maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index, and a family history of diabetes) and three laboratory parameters (fasting blood glucose level, the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, and the alanine transaminase to aspartate aminotransferase ratio) in the first trimester were selected and used to develop a simplified clinical screening model. The model showed good discrimination (ROC-AUC 0.784, 95% confidence interval 0.750–0.818, P < 0.001) and calibration.

The simplified prediction model in our study provided a simple and feasible tool to predict the risk of GDM in early pregnancy. The performance of our prediction model was superior to that of three other published models, and our prediction model would be applicable in pregnant Chinese women.