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. 2023 Oct 26;14:6803. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Comparison between the ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 and 273 CMIP6 simulations of trends in Summer maximum summer of daily maximum temperature, TX, (TXx, a) and c) and summer mean summer TX (TXm, b) and d) in °C/GWD represented in different ways; top panels: percentage of simulations with a trend larger than ERA5 at each grid point; bottom panels: representation of trends for model ensembles (dots) and observations (red and orange lines) after averaging over Western Europe (5°W to 15°E; 45°N-55°N); blue dots represent the 170 simulations that were analyzed with the analogue approach. Histograms at the bottom of the figure summarize the overall distribution of the TXx (left) and TXm (right) trends across the 273 simulations considered, together with the (blue) part analyzed with the analogue approach. Percentages of simulations with a trend larger than ERA5 are indicated in top right corners.