Table 1.
Excess deaths from 1st January 2020 to 16th April 2022 among Kilifi HDSS residents aged ≥1 year, pre-pandemic and in each of 5 COVID-19 waves
| Age | Deaths | Excess mortality | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Observed | Expected | N | % | 95% PI | Rate/100,000 |
| 1st January 2020–31st March 2020 (pre-pandemic period) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1 | –33.4, 114.3 | 12.4 |
| 5–14 years | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22.2 | –18.6, 92.1 | 19.0 |
| 15–44 years | 63 | 55 | 8 | 14.5 | –6.7, 41.7 | 30.4 |
| 45–64 years | 71 | 66 | 5 | 7.6 | –14.0, 39.4 | 66.7 |
| ≥65 years | 141 | 120 | 21 | 17.5 | 2.9, 43.9 | 692.7 |
| All agesa | 312 | 273 | 39 | 14.3 | 5.1, 24.9 | 59.1 |
| 1st April 2020–4th October 2020 (Wave 1—wild type) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 31 | 29 | 2 | 6.9 | –18.5, 53.5 | 12.4 |
| 5–14 years | 46 | 35 | 11 | 31.4 | 3.3, 93.2 | 25.8 |
| 15–44 years | 124 | 107 | 17 | 15.9 | 0.3, 38.6 | 31.6 |
| 45–64 years | 111 | 132 | –21 | –15.9 | –26.3, –0.1 | –135.7 |
| ≥65 years | 257 | 294 | –37 | –12.6 | –20.9, –1.9 | –584.1 |
| All agesa | 569 | 597 | –28 | –4.7 | –11.0, 4.5 | –20.9 |
| 5th October 2020–14th February 2021 (Wave 2—wild type) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0 | –36.7, 78.3 | 0.0 |
| 5–14 years | 20 | 27 | –7 | –25.9 | –46.6, 20.1 | –23.4 |
| 15–44 years | 79 | 77 | 2 | 2.6 | –16.6, 27.4 | 5.2 |
| 45–64 years | 88 | 88 | 0 | 0.0 | –16.4, 25.1 | 0.0 |
| ≥65 years | 200 | 185 | 15 | 8.1 | –5.7, 23.4 | 326.8 |
| All agesa | 404 | 394 | 10 | 2.5 | –7.8, 11.6 | 10.5 |
| 15th February 2021–4th June 2021 (Wave 3—Beta-Alpha) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | –16.8, 124.9 | 43.1 |
| 5–14 years | 21 | 20 | 1 | 5 | –32.0, 62.1 | 4.0 |
| 15–44 years | 61 | 66 | –5 | –7.6 | –25.0, 18.7 | –15.2 |
| 45–64 years | 75 | 81 | –6 | –7.4 | –22.9, 15.1 | –64.6 |
| ≥65 years | 179 | 159 | 20 | 12.6 | –3.0, 38.8 | 529.8 |
| All agesa | 356 | 342 | 14 | 4.1 | –7.0, 14.1 | 17.4 |
| 5th June 2021–11th December 2021 (Wave 4—Delta) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 20 | 26 | –6 | –23.1 | –50.7, 28.1 | –36.7 |
| 5–14 years | 19 | 38 | –19 | –50.0 | –65.3, –30.6 | –43.6 |
| 15–44 years | 102 | 110 | –8 | –7.3 | –23.7, 18.6 | –13.9 |
| 45–64 years | 156 | 128 | 28 | 21.9 | 4.4, 43.5 | 169.4 |
| ≥65 years | 414 | 308 | 106 | 34.4 | 19.3, 51.3 | 1545.6 |
| All agesa | 711 | 610 | 101 | 16.6 | 9.5, 24.7 | 71.6 |
| 12th December 2021–16th April 2022 (Wave 5—Omicron BA1) | ||||||
| 1–4 years | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6 | –27.7, 92.4 | 9.0 |
| 5–14 years | 15 | 25 | –10 | –40.0 | –59.3, -8.5 | –33.7 |
| 15–44 years | 71 | 77 | –6 | –7.8 | –22.5, 17.0 | –15.2 |
| 45–64 years | 95 | 92 | 3 | 3.3 | –11.7, 32.5 | 26.7 |
| ≥65 years | 207 | 179 | 28 | 15.6 | 1.5, 38.4 | 610.2 |
aAll ages excluding infants <1 year old.