TABLE 3.

Performance of Predictors Selected for Comorbidity Assessment for Surgical Triage (CAST) Model on Adverse Outcomes

	Primary Cohort		Secondary Cohort
Outcomes	AUROC	AUPRC	AUROC	AUPRC
Morbidity*	0.75 (0.73, 0.77)	0.08 (0.06, 0.09)	–	–
Mortality (30 day)	0.87 (0.83, 0.91)	0.02 (0.00, 0.05)	0.90 (0.88, 0.91)	0.01 (0.01, 0.02)
Mortality (inpatient)	0.91 (0.86, 0.95)	0.01 (0.00, 0.02)	0.87 (0.83, 0.90)	0.01 (0.00, 0.01)
Readmission (30 day)	0.72 (0.70, 0.74)	0.08 (0.07, 0.09)	0.76 (0.75, 0.76)	0.10 (0.09, 0.10)
Return to Emergency Department (7 d)	0.62 (0.60, 0.63)	0.11 (0.11, 0.12)	0.61 (0.61, 0.62)	0.09 (0.09, 0.09)
Any Returns to Care (30 d)	0.64 (0.63, 0.64)	0.21 (0.20, 0.22)	0.64 (0.63, 0.64)	0.19 (0.19, 0.20)

Logistic models constructed using predictors selected for the CAST model. Performance metrics calculated using test subset of the primary cohort and the secondary cohort.

^*Morbidity is defined the composite outcome of 30-day mortality and 30-day NSQIP major complications, which include cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, sepsis, septic shock, surgical site infections, unplanned intubation, deep vein thrombosis, progressive renal insufficiency or renal failure, and cerebrovascular accident.

AUPRC indicates area under precision-recall curve; AUROC, area under receiver-operating curve.