Table 3:
Adjusted cumulative incidence of stage-specific breast cancer and breast cancer death per 100 individuals
| Age | Exposure | Overall Breast Cancer Incidence | In Situ Breast Cancer Incidence | Localized Invasive Breast Cancer Incidence | Regional-Distant Breast Cancer Incidence | Breast Cancer Mortality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70–74 | Not Screened | 4.19 (3.49–5.03) | 0.59 (0.36–0.98) | 2.56 (2.05–3.20) | 0.90 (0.61–1.34) | 0.41 (0.22–0.76) |
| Screened | 6.08 (5.74–6.44) | 1.09 (0.94–1.27) | 3.84 (3.58–4.11) | 1.00 (0.85–1.17) | 0.35 (0.26–0.48) | |
| Difference | 1.89 (0.98–2.75) | 0.50 (0.10–0.81) | 1.28 (0.51–1.93) | 0.10 (−0.31–0.47) | −0.06 (−0.34–0.16) | |
| % Excess | 31 | 46 | 33 | 10 | −17 | |
| Hazard Ratio | 1.47 (1.19–1.81) | 1.86 (1.08–3.18) | 1.51 (1.15–1.98) | 1.11 (0.71–1.72) | 0.86 (0.44–1.68) | |
| 75–84 | Not Screened | 2.56 (2.20–2.97) | 0.15 (0.07–0.29) | 1.50 (1.21–1.86) | 0.74 (0.55–1) | 0.42 (0.28–0.64) |
| Screened | 4.85 (4.57–5.15) | 0.79 (0.68–0.93) | 3.15 (2.95–3.38) | 0.78 (0.66–0.92) | 0.36 (0.29–0.46) | |
| Difference | 2.29 (1.74–2.81) | 0.64 (0.46–0.79) | 1.65 (1.21–2.03) | 0.04 (−0.21–0.27) | −0.06 (−0.27–0.11) | |
| % Excess | 47 | 81 | 52 | 5 | −17 | |
| Hazard Ratio | 1.92 (1.60–2.3) | 5.41 (2.65–11.06) | 2.12 (1.68–2.67) | 1.05 (0.75–1.49) | 0.87 (0.55–1.37) | |
| 85+ | Not Screened | 1.28 (0.87–1.89) | 0.05 (0.01–0.21) | 0.71 (0.39–1.29) | 0.18 (0.08–0.38) | 0.16 (0.05–0.50) |
| Screened | 2.80 (2.30–3.41) | 0.19 (0.11–0.34) | 1.66 (1.26–2.20) | 0.33 (0.17–0.64) | 0.21 (0.09–0.51) | |
| Difference | 1.52 (0.65–2.20) | 0.14 (0.001–0.22) | 0.95 (0.29–1.38) | 0.15 (−0.04–0.30) | 0.05 (−0.12–0.19) | |
| % Excess | 54 | 74 | 57 | 45 | 24 | |
| Hazard Ratio | 2.2 (1.43–3.4) | 3.95 (0.98–15.97) | 2.35 (1.32–4.19) | 1.87 (0.69–5.12) | 1.34 (0.4–4.49) |
Notes: Tables present the adjusted cumulative incidence (breast cancer cases or breast cancer deaths per 100 individuals) through the end of follow up which occurred at breast cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of 2017. All values in parenthesis represent 95% confidence intervals. Hazard ratios compare risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death in screened and unscreened groups. In situ, localized and regional-distance incidence were derived from the SEER summary stage variable. Breast cancer death was identified from cause of death reported on death certificates. For the in-situ outcome, life expectancy was recoded into 6 month increments due to small cell sizes. For the breast cancer death outcome, life expectancy was recoded into 6-month increments and race was analyzed as non-Hispanic Black compared to all others due to small cell sizes.