Fig. 3.

Strength of historic temperature on speciation rate. (A) The correlation between temperature and speciation rate (without estimating extinction) in terrestrial orchids is reported both for MCMC Bayesian analysis (BAMM, black dots) and likelihood-based exponential speciation model fitting (RPANDA, red curve), where speciation driven by global cooling is more likely than by time (ΔAICc = 248.6). (B) Evidential support for nested sets of temperature-dependent vs. time-dependent exponential speciation models is displayed as log evidence ratios, with hatched lines indicating taxa in which time or temperature is 20 times more likely. Temperature is 703.5 times more likely than time to drive speciation in the Orchidoideae (red dot on Right), one of the best-supported examples in comparison with 210 tetrapod groups (blue violin plot) and Rhododendron and Pinus plant groups (red dots on the Left and in the Middle, respectively).