Table 1.
List of variables
| Definition | Approach | Data source | |
| Dependent variables | |||
| All sector ODA | Purpose code: total all sectors (1000) (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged (1+) | OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database21 |
| Health ODA | Purpose codes: sum of health (120), populational policies and programmes (130) and social mitigation of HIV/AIDS (16 064) (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged (1+) | |
| Explanatory variables | |||
| Gavi graduate | Years of and before the graduation were coded as ‘0’ and each subsequent year after graduation were coded as ‘1’ for a given recipient (see online supplemental appendix 1 for full list) | Lagged | Gavi website22 |
| Gavi disbursements | Gavi ODA disbursements, recipient country level (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged (1+) and lagged | OECD CRS database21 |
| Recipient–donor relationship control variables | |||
| Distance | Distance between donor and recipient capital cities (km) | Logged | EUGene v. 3.2 software23 |
| Donor imports | Donor imports from the recipient in a given year (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged and lagged | International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics24 |
| Migrants | The population stock of migrants from a recipient country residing in a donor country in a given year | Logged (1+) and lagged | OECD25 |
| Colony | 1 if the recipient was ever a colony of the donor and 0 otherwise | Coded from the Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook26 | |
| US military | Military assistance a country receives from the USA in a given year (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged (1+) | US Agency for International Development Greenbook27 |
| Donor exports | Donor exports to a recipient in a given year (Million constant 2017 US$) | Logged and lagged | International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics24 |
| Recipient control variables | |||
| Population | Population size of recipient country (Million) | Logged (1+) | Penn World Table version 6.328 |
| Income | Gross domestic product per capita (Constant 2017 US$) | Logged and lagged | Penn World Table version 6.328 |
| Disaster | The total number of people affected or killed as a result of natural disasters in a country in a given year | Logged | Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) International Disaster Database29 |
| Civil war | 1 if a recipient experienced one or more civil wars in a given year and 0 otherwise | Lagged | The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Dataset30 |
| Democracy | Average of a recipient’s score on the civil liberties and political rights; 1 is most democratic and 7 least democratic | Lagged | The Freedom House’s Freedom in the World data set31 |
| U5MR | Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1000 live births) | Lagged | World Development Indicators32 |
| DTP3 | Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) immunisation coverage among 1 year-olds (%) | Lagged | WHO33 |
| HDI | Human Development Index (%) | Lagged | United Nations Development Programme34 |
Notes: All financial data is reported in constant 2017 US$, using conversion methods as outlined in Turner et al.35 We used the natural log of (one plus) to adjust the skewed distribution of variables. Some variables have been lagged 1 year to allow policy effect. Gavi graduate and Gavi disbursement have been lagged 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively, to observe the effect in the short and longer term.
ODA, official development assistance; OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.