Table 2.
Impact of Gavi funding and graduation on bilateral donor ODA
| Variable | All sector ODA | Health ODA | ||
| (M1) | (M2) | (M3) | (M4) | |
| Gavi graduate | −0.371*** | −0.471*** | ||
| (0.107) | (0.115) | |||
| Gavi disbursement | 0.138*** | 0.164*** | ||
| (0.0292) | (0.0304) | |||
| Recipient-donor relationship variables | ||||
| Distance | −0.588*** | −0.571*** | −0.444*** | −0.426*** |
| (0.102) | (0.0999) | (0.0962) | (0.0941) | |
| Donor imports | −0.0186 | −0.0182 | 0.0199 | 0.0195 |
| (0.0233) | (0.0232) | (0.0240) | (0.0239) | |
| Migrants | 0.0340 | 0.0298 | 0.0437* | 0.0380 |
| (0.0234) | (0.0236) | (0.0242) | (0.0240) | |
| Colony | 0.244*** | 0.243*** | 0.0961 | 0.0971 |
| (0.0917) | (0.0916) | (0.0932) | (0.0929) | |
| US military | 0.116*** | 0.101*** | 0.0321 | 0.0150 |
| (0.0222) | (0.0220) | (0.0220) | (0.0218) | |
| Donor exports | −0.0253 | −0.0181 | −0.0503* | −0.0412 |
| (0.0264) | (0.0261) | (0.0264) | (0.0261) | |
| Recipient variables | ||||
| Population | 0.420*** | 0.357*** | 0.375*** | 0.298*** |
| (0.0349) | (0.0379) | (0.0347) | (0.0362) | |
| GDP per capita | −0.380*** | −0.395*** | −0.485*** | −0.502*** |
| (0.0779) | (0.0774) | (0.0775) | (0.0769) | |
| Disaster | 0.0236*** | 0.0215*** | 0.00754* | 0.00541 |
| (0.00426) | (0.00427) | (0.00423) | (0.00425) | |
| Civil war | 0.139* | 0.116 | −0.0383 | −0.0687 |
| (0.0730) | (0.0718) | (0.0723) | (0.0717) | |
| Democracy | −0.0499** | −0.0442** | −0.0739*** | −0.0667*** |
| (0.0206) | (0.0204) | (0.0197) | (0.0193) | |
| U5MR | −0.00490*** | −0.00464*** | −0.00204 | −0.00161 |
| (0.00170) | (0.00169) | (0.00167) | (0.00165) | |
| DTP3 coverage | 0.000857 | 0.000108 | 0.00642*** | 0.00557** |
| (0.00233) | (0.00233) | (0.00235) | (0.00235) | |
| HDI | −0.662 | −0.0302 | −1.079* | −0.297 |
| (0.586) | (0.573) | (0.584) | (0.573) | |
| Constant | 9.317*** | 9.013*** | 7.120*** | 6.499*** |
| (1.194) | (1.187) | (1.311) | (1.297) | |
| Observations | 10 275 | 10 247 | 10 245 | 10 247 |
| R-squared | 0.462 | 0.464 | ||
| Model | OLS | OLS | Tobit | Tobit |
| Fix effects (FE) | Donor, year | Donor, year | Donor, year | Donor, year |
| Cluster | Dyad | Dyad | Dyad | Dyad |
Notes: Dependent variable is the log of (one plus) all sector aid disbursement (or health aid disbursement) from donor to recipient in year t. All variables except Gavi Graduate, Colony, Civil War, Democracy, U5MR, DTP3 coverage and HDI are measured in natural logs. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
Two-part model for health ODA can be found in online supplemental appendix 4 Table S4.1.
DTP3, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis; GDP, gross domestic product; HDI, Human Development Index; ODA, official development assistance; U5MR, under-five mortality rate.