Table 4.

Impact of Gavi transition on different types of bilateral ODA and country vulnerability

Variable	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA	All sector ODA	Health ODA
	M13	M14	M15	M16	M17	M18	M19	M20	M21	M22	M23	M24	M25	M26
Gavi graduate	−0.563	−0.525	−1.262	−1.227	−0.227	−0.347	−0.217	0.0278	−0.457***	−0.511***	−0.246	−0.423**	−0.158	−0.299
	(1.715)	(1.730)	(1.204)	(1.288)	(0.180)	(0.218)	(0.624)	(0.624)	(0.135)	(0.146)	(0.163)	(0.179)	(0.192)	(0.236)
Interactions
Gavi graduate * distance	0.0502	0.0778	0.105	0.0889
	(0.188)	(0.180)	(0.141)	(0.150)
Gavi graduate* donor imports	0.152	0.159			−0.0210	−0.0170
	(0.106)	(0.130)			(0.0290)	(0.0304)
Gavi graduate* migrants	0.00164	−0.0369					−0.0127	−0.0403
	(0.0527)	(0.0589)					(0.0538)	(0.0533)
Gavi graduate* colony	0.255	0.0552							0.358**	0.171
	(0.217)	(0.250)							(0.179)	(0.208)
Gavi graduate * US military	−0.0103	0.0292									−0.0710	−0.0267
	(0.0696)	(0.0693)									(0.0646)	(0.0667)
Gavi graduate * donor exports	−0.196*	−0.192											−0.0312	−0.0240
	(0.113)	(0.145)											(0.0312)	(0.0334)
Observations	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275	10 275
R-squared	0.463		0.462		0.462		0.462		0.462		0.462		0.462
Model	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit	OLS	Tobit
FE	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year	Donor, year
Cluster	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad	Dyad

Notes: dependent variable is the log of (one plus) all sector aid disbursement (or health aid disbursement) from donor to recipient in year t. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. Other variables are included in the model and can be found in online supplemental appendix 4 table S4.3.

FE, fixed effects; ODA, official development assistance.