Table 2.
Predicted smoking prevalence (%) in males under strengthened policy scenarios from 2022 to 2050 in Korea
| Scenario | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status quoa | 35.3 | 34.0 | 32.2 | 30.7 | 29.4 | 28.3 | 27.6 |
| POWEb | 35.3 | 29.2 | 27.0 | 25.1 | 23.5 | 22.2 | 21.1 |
| POWEb + R8000c | 35.3 | 27.0 | 24.8 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 19.9 | 18.7 |
| POWEb + R8000c + R10%d | 35.3 | 26.3 | 22.7 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 15.1 | 13.4 |
| POWEb + TFGe | 35.3 | 28.8 | 24.9 | 21.2 | 17.9 | 15.0 | 12.3 |
| POWEb + TFGe + R8000c | 35.3 | 26.7 | 22.9 | 19.4 | 16.4 | 13.6 | 11.1 |
| POWEb + TFGe + R8000c + R10%d | 35.3 | 26.0 | 21.1 | 17.0 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 8.5 |
Apply each strengthened policy scenario from 2023.
a
Maintain the current tobacco control policy.
b
POWE: P, protect people from tobacco smoke. O, offer help to quit tobacco smoking. W, warn of the dangers of tobacco. E, enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship.
c
Cigarette price increase to KRW 8000.
d
Annual 10% cigarette price increase from KRW 8000.
e
TFG: Tobacco-Free Generation. We assumed that persons born after 2003 would not start smoking.