Table 3.
Predicted smoking prevalence (%) in females under strengthened policy scenarios from 2022 to 2050 in Korea
| Scenario | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Status quoa | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| POWEb | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| POWEb + R8000c | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| POWEb + R8000c + R10%d | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| POWEb + TFGe | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| POWEb + TFGe + R8000c | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| POWEb + TFGe + R8000c + R10%d | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Apply each strengthened policy scenario from 2023.
a
Maintain the current tobacco control policy.
b
POWE: P, protect people from tobacco smoke. O, offer help to quit tobacco smoking. W, warn of the dangers of tobacco. E, enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship.
c
Cigarette price increase to KRW 8000.
d
Annual 10% cigarette price increase from KRW 8000.
e
TFG: Tobacco-Free Generation. We assumed that persons born after 2003 would not start smoking.