Table 2. Reductions in new HIV infections associated with universal increases to viral suppression through increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and HIV acquisition reduction through pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake by adults and adults and adolescents in combination.
| ART coverage (%) | PrEP coverage (%)1 | Total number of new HIV infections (mean & 80% simulation intervals)2 | Percent of infections averted (mean & 80% simulation intervals) | Number of infections averted / 100K (mean & 80% simulation intervals) | Total number of new HIV infections (mean & 80% simulation intervals) 2 | Percent of infections averted (mean & 80% simulation intervals) | Number of infections averted / 100K (mean & 80% simulation intervals) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PrEP eligibility | Adults 18 + year old | Adults and adolescents 15 + year old | |||||
| Baseline | Baseline | 549.7 (487.8, 600.8) | NA | NA | 549.7 (487.8, 600.8) | NA | NA |
| 60 | 10 | 517.6 (462.6, 566.7) | 5.5 (-10.2, 18.8) | 0.8 (-1.3, 2.8) | 521.2 (469, 583.2) | 4.9 (-9.2, 16.4) | 0.7 (-1.2, 2.4) |
| 70 | 20 | 353.4 (302, 406.7) | 35.4 (22.7, 47.8) | 4.9 (3, 7) | 354.6 (319.6, 391.8) | 35.2 (24, 43) | 4.9 (3.1, 6.3) |
| 80 | 30 | 221.1 (187.8, 264.8) | 59.6 (48.7, 67) | 8.2 (6.1, 9.8) | 230 (206.4, 258.7) | 58 (50.2, 64) | 8 (6.3, 9.5) |
| 90 | 40 | 116.9 (99, 140.3) | 78.6 (73.2, 82.5) | 10.9 (9.2, 12.3) | 119.2 (98.2, 143.2) | 78.3 (72.9, 81.8) | 10.8 (9.2, 12) |
| 100 | 50 | 31.3 (23.8, 40.3) | 94.3 (92.4, 95.6) | 13 (11.5, 14.3) | 30.8 (21.6, 39.3) | 94.4 (92.5, 95.9) | 13 (11.5, 14.3) |
| 90 | 10 | 159.9 (123.6, 192.5) | 70.8 (64.6, 77) | 9.8 (8.2, 11.3) | 156.9 (127.8, 188.8) | 71.4 (64.3, 76.3) | 9.9 (8.1, 11.1) |
| 20 | 144.5 (121.6, 166.8) | 73.6 (68.2, 78.2) | 10.2 (8.5, 11.6) | 148.8 (128.6, 172.2) | 72.8 (66.1, 77.2) | 10.1 (8.3, 11.4) | |
| 30 | 126.1 (100, 155.5) | 77 (70.5, 81.8) | 10.6 (9, 12.1) | 130.3 (106.6, 155.5) | 76.2 (70.4, 80.6) | 10.5 (8.9, 11.9) | |
| 40 | 116.9 (99, 140.3) | 78.6 (73.2, 82.5) | 10.9 (9.2, 12.3) | 119.2 (98.2, 143.2) | 78.3 (72.9, 81.8) | 10.8 (9.2, 12) | |
| 50 | 108.8 (86.6, 133.2) | 80.1 (74.2, 84.7) | 11.1 (9.3, 12.6) | 107.8 (84.2, 132.2) | 80.3 (74.5, 85) | 11.1 (9.2, 12.7) | |
| 95 | 10 | 99.4 (79.6, 124.7) | 81.9 (76.8, 85.5) | 11.3 (9.8, 12.6) | 103.4 (79.4, 127.3) | 81.1 (76.1, 85.3) | 11.2 (9.5, 12.6) |
| 20 | 91.4 (73.4, 110.8) | 83.3 (79.3, 87) | 11.5 (9.9, 12.9) | 90.3 (72.8, 111.3) | 83.5 (79.9, 86.6) | 11.5 (9.9, 12.7) | |
| 30 | 81.2 (62.6, 106.5) | 85.2 (79.8, 88.6) | 11.8 (10.1, 13.1) | 83.8 (67.4, 103.7) | 84.7 (80, 87.9) | 11.7 (10.1, 13.1) | |
| 40 | 73 (56.6, 90.5) | 86.7 (83.2, 90) | 12 (10.5, 13.4) | 74.3 (57.4, 90.8) | 86.4 (83.3, 89.8) | 11.9 (10.3, 13.3) | |
| 50 | 67.6 (53.4, 83.7) | 87.6 (84.3, 90.4) | 12.1 (10.5, 13.5) | 67.2 (53.2, 81.5) | 87.7 (84.5, 90.3) | 12.1 (10.6, 13.5) | |
1Prep coverage is calculated using the number of individuals eligible for PrEP as the denominator.
2The total number of new infections in bold indicate when the number is greater when comparing the same PrEP and ART coverage with and without PrEP use among adolescents ages 15–17.