Table 3. Reductions in the HIV incidence rate among adolescents ages 15–17 years associated with universal increases to viral suppression through increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and HIV acquisition reduction through pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among adults and among adults and adolescents in combination.
| Intervention | PrEP 18+ year old | PrEP 15+ years old | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ART coverage (%) | PrEP coverage (%) | Annual incidence per 100K adolescents during the final year of simulation (mean and 80% simulation intervals)1 | Reduction in incidence | Annual incidence per 100K adolescents during the final year of simulation (mean and 80% simulation intervals) 1 | Reduction in incidence |
| Baseline | Baseline | 9.7 (2.2, 22.7) | NA | 9.7 (2.2, 22.7) | NA |
| 60 | 10 | 9.1 (1.5, 17.6) | 5.56% | 8.3 (1.3, 19.5) | 13.77% |
| 70 | 20 | 6.9 (0.6, 15.8) | 28.48% | 7.7 (0.1, 24.4) | 20.34% |
| 80 | 30 | 4.5 (0, 14.1) | 53.56% | 3.8 (0, 10.1) | 60.60% |
| 90 | 40 | 2.4 (0, 8.6) | 75.59% | 1.5 (0, 5.1) | 84.01% |
| 100 | 50 | 0.1 (0, 0.6) | 99.25% | 0 (0, 0.3) | 99.64% |
| 90 | 10 | 2.4 (0, 8.4) | 75.12% | 2.8 (0, 9.8) | 70.99% |
| 20 | 3.1 (0, 9.5) | 68.38% | 1.4 (0, 6.1) | 85.47% | |
| 30 | 1.8 (0, 5.9) | 81.52% | 2.2 (0, 7.3) | 77.65% | |
| 40 | 2.4 (0, 8.6) | 75.59% | 1.5 (0, 5.1) | 84.01% | |
| 50 | 1.7 (0, 5.9) | 82.14% | 1.2 (0, 5.9) | 87.18% | |
| 95 | 10 | 1.6 (0, 6.8) | 83.23% | 1.4 (0, 5.9) | 85.66% |
| 20 | 1.3 (0, 5) | 86.59% | 0.9 (0, 4.1) | 90.27% | |
| 30 | 1.6 (0, 6.8) | 83.35% | 0.6 (0, 2.7) | 94.10% | |
| 40 | 1.2 (0, 5.5) | 87.41% | 1 (0, 5.3) | 90.17% | |
| 50 | 1.4 (0, 6) | 85.70% | 1 (0, 3.5) | 89.91% | |
1Annual incidence per 100K adolescents ages 15–17 in bold indicate when the incidence rate is greater when comparing the same PrEP and ART coverage with and without PrEP use among adolescents age 15–17.