Table 3.
Results of state- and year- fixed effects regression models predicting drug overdose mortality rates for Non-Hispanic (NH) White, NH Black, and Hispanic populations, by measures related to seized drug reports, 2013–2021.
| White, Non-Hispanic |
Black, Non-Hispanic |
Hispanic |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (SE) | R2 | AIC | β (SE) | R2 | AIC | β (SE) | R2 | AIC | |
| A. Baseline model | |||||||||
| State & Year Fixed Effects | 0.66 | −510.57 | 0.89 | −232.75 | 0.74 | −58.19 | |||
| B. Baseline model + one seized drug report measure at a time | |||||||||
| Fentanyl/FRC rate | 0.09 (0.02) | 0.71 | −575.95 | 0.06 (0.03) | 0.90 | −242.42 | 0.11 (0.03) | 0.76 | −79.33 |
| Fentanyl/FRC % | 0.13 (0.02) | 0.73 | −621.60 | 0.10 (0.03) | 0.90 | −256.74 | 0.16 (0.04) | 0.77 | −96.04 |
| Heroin rate | −0.03 (0.02) | 0.66 | −513.87 | −0.02 (0.03) | 0.89 | −231.96 | −0.03 (0.05) | 0.74 | −57.50 |
| Heroin % | −0.08 (0.02) | 0.69 | −551.42 | −0.05 (0.03) | 0.89 | −237.56 | −0.06 (0.05) | 0.74 | −61.10 |
| Meth. rate | −0.01 (0.03) | 0.66 | −508.77 | 0.01 (0.05) | 0.89 | −230.98 | 0.04 (0.07) | 0.74 | −56.96 |
| Meth. % | 0.06 (0.06) | 0.66 | −512.81 | 0.06 (0.06) | 0.89 | −232.85 | 0.04 (0.10) | 0.74 | −56.69 |
| Cocaine rate | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.66 | −511.88 | −0.00 (0.04) | 0.89 | −230.76 | 0.03 (0.06) | 0.74 | −56.72 |
| Cocaine % | −0.09 (0.04) | 0.68 | −530.02 | −0.10 (0.04) | 0.90 | −243.15 | −0.22 (0.07) | 0.76 | −85.78 |
| Xylazine rate | −0.01 (0.01) | 0.66 | −509.88 | −0.02 (0.01) | 0.89 | −233.82 | −0.01 (0.01) | 0.74 | −56.37 |
| Xylazine % | 0.00 (0.01) | 0.66 | −508.67 | −0.00 (0.01) | 0.89 | −230.81 | 0.00 (0.01) | 0.74 | −56.20 |
| Carfent. rate | 0.02 (0.00) | 0.66 | −514.65 | 0.02 (0.00) | 0.89 | −233.62 | 0.02 (0.00) | 0.74 | −58.34 |
| Carfent. % | 0.02 (0.00) | 0.67 | −516.93 | 0.02 (0.01) | 0.89 | −234.92 | 0.02 (0.01) | 0.74 | −58.93 |
| C. Baseline model + all seized drug report measures simultaneously | |||||||||
| Rates | |||||||||
| Fentanyl/FRC rate | 0.13 (0.03) | − | − | 0.09 (0.04) | − | − | 0.17 (0.04) | − | − |
| Heroin rate | 0.05 (0.04) | − | − | 0.02 (0.04) | − | − | 0.07 (0.07) | − | − |
| Meth. rate | −0.04 (0.03) | − | − | −0.02 (0.05) | − | − | −0.04 (0.08) | − | − |
| Cocaine rate | −0.05 (0.04) | − | − | −0.05 (0.04) | − | − | −0.07 (0.06) | − | − |
| Xylazine rate | −0.02 (0.01) | − | − | −0.03 (0.01) | − | − | −0.02 (0.01) | − | − |
| Model fit | − | 0.72 | −592.25 | − | 0.90 | −244.73 | − | 0.76 | −78.76 |
| Percentages | |||||||||
| Fentanyl/FRC % | 0.13 (0.02) | − | − | 0.11 (0.03) | − | − | 0.15 (0.04) | − | − |
| Meth. % | −0.01 (0.07) | − | − | 0.04 (0.07) | − | − | −0.12 (0.11) | − | − |
| Cocaine % | −0.08 (0.05) | − | − | −0.08 (0.05) | − | − | −0.25 (0.08) | − | − |
| Xylazine % | −0.02 (0.01) | − | − | −0.02 (0.01) | − | − | −0.02 (0.01) | − | − |
| Model fit | − | 0.75 | −641.18 | − | 0.90 | −267.26 | − | 0.79 | −121.36 |
Notes. State-year observations: NH White, n = 459; NH Black, n = 359; Hispanic, n = 335. Rate refers to the number of law enforcement seized drug reports of the specified drug per 1000 population. Percentage refers to the number of drug reports of the specified drug divided by all drug reports examined in the study, expressed as percent. Drug overdose mortality rates are per 100,000 population and are log-transformed. All predictors are standardized with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. Robust standard errors are clustered at the state level. Coefficients in bold are significantly different from zero at p<0.05. R2 is for the within variation. Abbreviations: SE, standard error; AIC, Akaike information criterion; FRC, fentanyl-related compounds; %, percent; Meth, methamphetamine; Carfent, carfentanil. Symbols: −, not applicable.