Table 2.
Age-stratified avertable COVID-19 deathsa (ACD) in Iran based on the per capita vaccine roll-out rates from model countries at different stages of the epidemic in Iran. This includes ACDs during the Alpha and Delta waves (from 19 February 2021, to 22 December 2021) and the Omicron BA.1 wave (from 5 January 2022, to 20 April 2022)
| Country | ACD < 50 age groups during Alpha and Delta | ACD < 50 age groups during Omicron | ACD > 50 age groups during Alpha and Delta | ACD > 50 age groups during Omicron |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 2900 (2100, 3100) | 300 (200, 300) | 8800 (7800, 9700) | 400 (300, 400) |
| Bahrain | 11,600 (8500, 12,400) | 500 (400, 500) | 62,300 (47,000, 69,000) | 900 (700, 1000) |
| Bangladesh | − 12,200 (− 49,300, − 3500) | − 7100 (− 28,900, − 2100) | − 19,600 (− 71,300, − 5700) | − 12,900 (− 36,500, − 5800) |
| Bolivia | − 900 (− 7600, 300) | − 7100 (− 28,600, − 2000) | 9600 (7900, 11,500) | − 9600 (− 28,900, − 4100) |
| Montenegro | 0 (− 5700, 900) | − 8700 (− 35,300, − 2500) | 43,800 (33,500, 47,500) | − 3100 (− 13,600, − 700) |
| Nepal | − 6400 (− 26,000, − 1800) | − 5400 (− 21,800, − 1600) | 9200 (− 1800, 9400) | − 1800 (− 7900, − 400) |
| Sri Lanka | 2300 (1700, 2400) | 0 (0, 100) | 21,400 (16,900, 21,500) | 400 (300, 400) |
| Turkey | 4500 (3300, 4800) | − 700 (− 2700, − 200) | 45,900 (34,800, 51,200) | 200 (200, 300) |
aNegative ACD represents counterfactual scenarios in which adopting the vaccination roll-out of a model country leads to a higher number of deaths than what Iran experienced based on its own (factual) roll-out rate