TABLE 3.
Detection of atrial fibrillation by quintiles of predicted probability, computed in the testing dataset (n = 9110 in the full population and n = 728 in the poststroke/TIA population).
| Full population | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full model | Q1 (n = 1822) | Q2 (n = 1822) | Q3 (n = 1822) | Q4 (n = 1822) | Q5 (n = 1822) |
| Predicted risk, % | 0.5–2.8 | 2.8–4.7 | 4.7–7.4 | 7.4–10.9 | >10.0 |
| Observed AF events, n (%) | 4 (0.22) | 51 (2.8) | 113 (6.2) | 209 (11.5) | 289 (15.9) |
| Mean age (SD), years | 41.8 (15.7) | 61.4 (14.1) | 69.7 (10.4) | 73.0 (9.6) | 76.3 (8.8) |
| Age ≥65 years, % | 11.7 | 50.4 | 77.9 | 87.8 | 93.3 |
| Male sex, % | 35.7 | 43.0 | 43.9 | 43.4 | 45.8 |
| ECG only model | Q1 (n = 1816) | Q2 (n = 1828) | Q3 (n = 1822) | Q4 (n = 1822) | Q5 (n = 1822) |
| Predicted risk, % | 0.5–2.8 | 2.8–4.7 | 4.7–7.4 | 7.4–11.0 | >11.0 |
| Observed AF events, n (%) | 7 (0.4) | 49 (2.7) | 113 (6.2) | 208 (11.4) | 289 (15.9) |
| Mean age | 42.4 (16.1) | 61.3 (14.5) | 69.4 (11.0) | 72.9 (9.8) | 76.0 (8.9) |
| Age ≥65 years, % | 13.1 | 51.0 | 76.6 | 87.6 | 92.8 |
| Male sex, % | 35.8 | 42.7 | 44.0 | 43.6 | 45.9 |
| Poststroke/TIA patients | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full model | Q1 (n = 145) | Q2 (n = 146) | Q3 (n = 145) | Q4 (n = 146) | Q5 (n = 146) |
| Predicted risk, % | 1.2–3.5 | 3.5–5.3 | 5.3–7.8 | 7.8–11.1 | >11.1 |
| Observed AF events, n (%) | 1 (0.7) | 2 (1.4) | 4 (2.8) | 6 (4.1) | 16 (11.0) |
| Mean age (SD), years | 58.6 (14.4) | 69.8 (9.4) | 73.3 (7.8) | 76.4 (7.4) | 78.5 (8.4) |
| Age ≥65 years, % | 39.3 | 78.1 | 90.3 | 94.5 | 96.6 |
| Male sex, % | 50.0 | 48.6 | 46.2 | 50.7 | 45.9 |
| ECG only model | |||||
| Predicted risk, % | 1.2–3.5 | 3.5–5.2 | 5.2–7.7 | 7.7–11.0 | >11.0 |
| Observed AF events, n (%) | 1 (0.7) | 2 (1.4) | 4 (2.8) | 6 (4.1) | 16 (11.0) |
| Mean age | 54.8 (16.0) | 67.0 (10.4) | 72.2 (9.2) | 75.6 (7.7) | 78.2 (8.4) |
| Age ≥65 years, % | 29.0 | 68.1 | 85.9 | 92.6 | 96.1 |
| Male sex, % | 43.4 | 51.3 | 47.9 | 48.6 | 47.4 |