Table 2. HRs and Absolute Differences in Incidence for Major Cardiovascular Disease at Age 60 Years by Tenths (Deciles) of the Individual Risk Factors and the Combined Risk z Score.
| Risk factor value per decile, median (range) | Total cohort analysis (N = 1 138 833) | Sibling analysis (n = 463 995) | Change in HR for sibling vs cohort analysis, %a | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases, No./total No. | HR (95% CI) | Absolute incidence difference at age 60 y, % (95% CI) | Cases, No./total No. | HR (95% CI) | Absolute incidence difference at age 60 y, % (95% CI) | ||
| Body mass indexb | |||||||
| 18.1 (15.0 to 18.7) | 4667/114 967 | Reference | Reference | 1726/46 851 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| 19.2 (18.7 to 19.6) | 4374/115 736 | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02) | −0.2 (−0.5 to 0.2) | 1731/47 772 | 1.06 (0.97 to 1.16) | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.2) | 8.2 |
| 19.9 (19.6 to 20.2) | 4181/110 981 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.05) | 0 (−0.3 to 0.3) | 1601/46 119 | 1.02 (0.93 to 1.12) | 0.2 (−0.6 to 0.9) | 2.0 |
| 20.5 (20.2 to 20.8) | 4294/116 307 | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.05) | 0 (−0.3 to 0.4) | 1646/48 369 | 1.06 (0.97 to 1.17) | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.3) | 5.0 |
| 21.1 (20.8 to 21.3) | 4287/113 037 | 1.06 (1.02 to 1.10) | 0.4 (0.1 to 0.8) | 1686/46 907 | 1.19 (1.08 to 1.31) | 1.5 (0.6 to 2.3) | 12.3 |
| 21.6 (21.3 to 21.9) | 4225/112 486 | 1.07 (1.02 to 1.11) | 0.5 (0.1 to 0.9) | 1636/46 424 | 1.23 (1.11 to 1.36) | 1.7 (0.8 to 2.6) | 15.0 |
| 22.3 (21.9 to 22.6) | 4590/115 784 | 1.15 (1.11 to 1.20) | 1.1 (0.8 to 1.5) | 1757/47 140 | 1.30 (1.17 to 1.43) | 2.2 (1.2 to 3.1) | 13.0 |
| 23.1 (22.6 to 23.5) | 4747/111 929 | 1.27 (1.22 to 1.32) | 2 (1.6 to 2.4) | 1840/45 494 | 1.37 (1.24 to 1.51) | 2.7 (1.7 to 3.7) | 7.9 |
| 24.2 (23.5 to 25.1) | 5459/113 753 | 1.47 (1.41 to 1.53) | 3.4 (3 to 3.8) | 2097/45 120 | 1.56 (1.41 to 1.73) | 4.0 (2.9 to 5.1) | 6.1 |
| 26.9 (25.1 to 54.7)c | 7782/113 853 | 2.25 (2.17 to 2.33) | 8.3 (7.7 to 8.8) | 2878/43 799 | 2.10 (1.90 to 2.32) | 7.2 (5.9 to 8.6) | −6.7 |
| Cardiorespiratory fitness, W | |||||||
| 202 (100 to 211)d | 10 149/131 756 | Reference | Reference | 3580/50 935 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| 222 (212 to 229)e | 8006/114 758 | 0.89 (0.86 to 0.91) | −1 (−1.2 to −0.7) | 2978/45 822 | 0.98 (0.92 to 1.05) | −0.2 (−0.7 to 0.4) | −10.1 |
| 236 (230 to 241) | 6518/108 462 | 0.86 (0.84 to 0.89) | −1.2 (−1.4 to −0.9) | 2487/43 482 | 0.97 (0.90 to 1.04) | −0.2 (−0.8 to 0.3) | −12.8 |
| 250 (242 to 254) | 5926/112 310 | 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) | −1.5 (−1.8 to −1.3) | 2233/46 088 | 0.91 (0.84 to 0.98) | −0.7 (−1.2 to −0.1) | −12.3 |
| 262 (255 to 270) | 5175/124 210 | 0.77 (0.75 to 0.80) | −1.8 (−2.1 to −1.6) | 2026/50 591 | 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97) | −0.8 (−1.4 to −0.3) | −15.6 |
| 277 (271 to 282) | 3499/94 975 | 0.71 (0.68 to 0.74) | −2.4 (−2.7 to −2.2) | 1449/39 526 | 0.90 (0.82 to 0.99) | −0.8 (−1.4 to −0.1) | −26.8 |
| 291 (283 to 300) | 3317/119 447 | 0.70 (0.67 to 0.73) | −2.5 (−2.7 to −2.2) | 1363/49 241 | 0.89 (0.81 to 0.98) | −0.8 (−1.5 to −0.2) | −27.1 |
| 311 (301 to 320) | 2709/113 395 | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.65) | −3.1 (−3.4 to −2.9) | 1098/47 700 | 0.79 (0.72 to 0.88) | −1.6 (−2.2 to −1.0) | −27.4 |
| 332 (321 to 343) | 1751/107 738 | 0.57 (0.54 to 0.60) | −3.5 (−3.8 to −3.3) | 713/44 119 | 0.76 (0.68 to 0.86) | −1.8 (−2.6 to −1.1) | −33.3 |
| 365 (344 to 999) | 1556/111 782 | 0.55 (0.52 to 0.59) | −3.7 (−4.0 to −3.4) | 671/46 491 | 0.77 (0.68 to 0.88) | −1.8 (−2.5 to −1.0) | −40.0 |
| Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | |||||||
| 112 (100 to 114) | 4059/121 082 | Reference | Reference | 1580/49 626 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| 120 (115 to 120) | 7029/178 815 | 1.12 (1.07 to 1.16) | 1 (0.6 to 1.3) | 2632/73 310 | 1.04 (0.96 to 1.13) | 0.3 (−0.4 to 1.0) | −7.1 |
| 122 (121 to 122) | 2429/62 219 | 1.13 (1.07 to 1.19) | 1.1 (0.7 to 1.6) | 912/25 556 | 1.00 (0.89 to 1.11) | 0.0 (−0.9 to 0.9) | −11.5 |
| 124 (123 to 126) | 5924/149 474 | 1.14 (1.10 to 1.19) | 1.2 (0.8 to 1.5) | 2397/62 083 | 1.14 (1.04 to 1.24) | 1.0 (0.3 to 1.8) | 0.0 |
| 128 (127 to 128) | 2765/63 448 | 1.23 (1.17 to 1.29) | 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4) | 1022/25 734 | 1.10 (0.99 to 1.22) | 0.8 (−0.2 to 1.8) | −10.6 |
| 130 (129 to 132) | 7276/171 911 | 1.26 (1.21 to 1.31) | 2 (1.6 to 2.3) | 2784/69 734 | 1.17 (1.07 to 1.27) | 1.2 (0.4 to 1.9) | −7.1 |
| 134 (133 to 134) | 2910/69 682 | 1.28 (1.22 to 1.34) | 2.3 (1.8 to 2.8) | 1076/28 634 | 1.13 (1.02 to 1.26) | 1.1 (0.1 to 2.0) | −11.7 |
| 136 (135 to 138) | 5004/109 636 | 1.38 (1.32 to 1.43) | 2.9 (2.5 to 3.4) | 1933/43 738 | 1.27 (1.15 to 1.39) | 2.0 (1.1 to 2.9) | −8.0 |
| 140 (139 to 142) | 5276/113 954 | 1.45 (1.39 to 1.51) | 3.4 (3 to 3.9) | 2038/45 285 | 1.29 (1.18 to 1.42) | 2.1 (1.2 to 3.0) | −11.0 |
| 146 (143 to 180) | 5923/98 612 | 1.67 (1.61 to 1.74) | 5 (4.5 to 5.5) | 2224/40 295 | 1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) | 3.3 (2.2 to 4.3) | −13.2 |
| Diastolic blood pressure, mm Hg | |||||||
| 50 (40 to 52) | 2721/121 237 | Reference | Reference | 1203/53 619 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| 56 (53 to 58) | 4121/131 411 | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.11) | 0.5 (0 to 0.9) | 1738/57 051 | 1.06 (0.96 to 1.17) | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.3) | 0.0 |
| 60 (59 to 60) | 3439/107 811 | 1.07 (1.01 to 1.12) | 0.6 (0.1 to 1) | 1367/44 937 | 1.05 (0.95 to 1.16) | 0.4 (−0.4 to 1.3) | −1.9 |
| 64 (61 to 64) | 4698/126 055 | 1.13 (1.08 to 1.18) | 1 (0.6 to 1.4) | 1877/52 628 | 1.11 (1.01 to 1.22) | 0.8 (0.0 to 1.7) | −1.8 |
| 68 (65 to 68) | 6299/146 585 | 1.17 (1.12 to 1.23) | 1.3 (0.9 to 1.7) | 2423/59 384 | 1.15 (1.05 to 1.27) | 1.1 (0.3 to 2.0) | −1.7 |
| 70 (69 to 70) | 5723/128 012 | 1.23 (1.17 to 1.29) | 1.8 (1.3 to 2.2) | 2094/50 780 | 1.20 (1.09 to 1.32) | 1.5 (0.6 to 2.4) | −2.4 |
| 72 (71 to 72) | 2985/63 329 | 1.23 (1.17 to 1.30) | 1.9 (1.4 to 2.4) | 1168/25 439 | 1.22 (1.09 to 1.37) | 1.7 (0.7 to 2.8) | −0.8 |
| 74 (73 to 76) | 6181/118 216 | 1.29 (1.24 to 1.36) | 2.2 (1.8 to 2.7) | 2293/46 190 | 1.21 (1.10 to 1.33) | 1.6 (0.7 to 2.5) | −6.2 |
| 80 (77 to 80) | 6379/116 098 | 1.40 (1.33 to 1.46) | 2.9 (2.4 to 3.4) | 2320/44 364 | 1.30 (1.18 to 1.43) | 2.2 (1.2 to 3.2) | −7.1 |
| 84 (81 to 100) | 6060/80 079 | 1.70 (1.62 to 1.79) | 5.2 (4.6 to 5.8) | 2115/29 603 | 1.45 (1.31 to 1.61) | 3.4 (2.2 to 4.5) | −14.7 |
| Handgrip strength, N | |||||||
| 470 (100 to 500) | 6259/136 462 | Reference | Reference | 2352/54 262 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| 530 (501 to 540) | 5638/126 176 | 0.93 (0.89 to 0.96) | −0.6 (−0.9 to −0.3) | 2052/50 906 | 0.92 (0.85 to 1.00) | −0.6 (−1.3 to −0.0) | 1.1 |
| 550 (541 to 560) | 3439/85 206 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93) | −1 (−1.3 to −0.6) | 1323/34 563 | 0.89 (0.83 to 1.05) | −0.9 (−1.6 to −0.3) | 0.0 |
| 580 (561 to 590) | 5980/135 760 | 0.90 (0.87 to 0.93) | −0.8 (−1.1 to −0.6) | 2267/55 172 | 0.90 (0.83 to 0.98) | −0.8 (−1.4 to −0.2) | 0.0 |
| 600 (591 to 610) | 4175/102 543 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) | −1 (−1.3 to −0.7) | 1590/42 070 | 0.91 (0.84 to 1.00) | −0.7 (−1.4 to −0.1) | −2.2 |
| 630 (611 to 640) | 5751/136 618 | 0.88 (0.85 to 0.91) | −1 (−1.2 to −0.7) | 2157/55 617 | 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97) | −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.3) | −1.1 |
| 650 (641 to 660) | 3269/82 770 | 0.87 (0.83 to 0.90) | −1.1 (−1.4 to −0.8) | 1263/34 045 | 0.88 (0.80 to 0.97) | −1.0 (−1.7 to −0.3) | −1.1 |
| 680 (661 to 700) | 5581/135 232 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) | −0.9 (−1.2 to −0.7) | 2192/55 348 | 0.97 (0.89 to 1.06) | −0.3 (−1.0 to 0.3) | −9.0 |
| 720 (701 to 740) | 3832/87 776 | 0.90 (0.87 to 0.94) | −0.8 (−1.1 to −0.5) | 1546/36 389 | 0.96 (0.87 to 1.06) | −0.4 (−1.1 to 0.3) | −6.7 |
| 780 (741 to 999) | 4682/110 290 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) | −1 (−1.2 to −0.7) | 1856/45 623 | 0.90 (0.82 to 0.99) | −0.8 (−1.5 to −0.1) | −1.1 |
| Combined risk, z scoref | |||||||
| −0.8 (−3.6 to −0.6) | 1605/113 884 | Reference | Reference | 704/49 495 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| −0.5 (−0.6 to −0.4) | 2362/113 883 | 1.20 (1.13 to 1.28) | 1.7 (1.0 to 2.3) | 996/48 699 | 1.12 (1.00 to 1.27) | 1.0 (−0.1 to 2.1) | −6.7 |
| −0.3 (−0.4 to −0.3) | 2825/113 883 | 1.26 (1.19 to 1.35) | 2.1 (1.5 to 2.7) | 1187/48 313 | 1.16 (1.03 to 1.31) | 1.3 (0.2 to 2.4) | −7.9 |
| −0.2 (−0.3 to −0.1) | 3293/113 884 | 1.33 (1.25 to 1.42) | 2.6 (2.0 to 3.3) | 1363/48 005 | 1.18 (1.05 to 1.33) | 1.4 (0.3 to 2.4) | −11.3 |
| −0.1 (−0.1 to 0) | 4090/113 883 | 1.53 (1.44 to 1.62) | 4.0 (3.4 to 4.7) | 1620/47 242 | 1.28 (1.14 to 1.44) | 2.1 (1.0 to 3.2) | −16.3 |
| 0 (0 to 0.1) | 4566/113 883 | 1.60 (1.51 to 1.69) | 4.5 (3.9 to 5.2) | 1789/46 366 | 1.35 (1.20 to 1.52) | 2.6 (1.4 to 3.8) | −15.6 |
| 0.2 (0.1 to 0.2) | 5512/113 884 | 1.81 (1.71 to 1.92) | 6.0 (5.2 to 6.7) | 2172/45 940 | 1.54 (1.37 to 1.73) | 3.9 (2.6 to 5.2) | −14.9 |
| 0.3 (0.2 to 0.4) | 6169/113 883 | 1.92 (1.81 to 2.03) | 6.7 (5.9 to 7.4) | 2318/44 736 | 1.51 (1.34 to 1.69) | 3.6 (2.4 to 4.9) | −21.4 |
| 0.5 (0.4 to 0.6) | 7738/113 883 | 2.32 (2.20 to 2.45) | 9.1 (8.3 to 10) | 2799/43 449 | 1.72 (1.53 to 1.93) | 5.0 (3.6 to 6.3) | −25.9 |
| 0.8 (0.6 to 4.2)g | 10 446/113 883 | 3.12 (2.96 to 3.29) | 13.6 (12.6 to 14.6) | 3650/41 750 | 2.19 (1.96 to 2.46) | 7.8 (6.2 to 9.4) | −29.8 |
Abbreviation: HR, hazard ratio.
a
The percentage change in HR was calculated as the difference in HRs over the cohort HR.
b
Body mass index is calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared.
c
The maximum value observed in the tenth decile was 51.3 in the sibling cohort.
d
The first decile median in the sibling cohort was 203.
e
The second decile median in the sibling cohort was 223.
f
This is the unweighted mean across exposure z scores (see the Methods section).
g
The minimum observed value in the first decile was 3.7 in the sibling cohort.