Table 2.

Difference between predicted and observed mortality among women with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer

	First breast cancer				Second breast cancer
	Predicted No. of deaths	Observed No. of deaths	Absolute mortality difference (95% confidence interval)a	Relative mortality ratio (95% confidence interval)b	Predicted No. of deaths	Observed No. of deaths	Absolute mortality difference (95% confidence interval)a	Relative mortality ratio (95% confidence interval)b
Overall (%)	13 181	13 855	‒0.22 (‒0.29 to ‒0.15)	0.95 (0.94 to 0.97)	206	556	‒6.24 (‒6.96 to ‒5.49)	0.37 (0.34 to 0.4)
Year
2000-2004	4368	4742	‒0.43 (‒0.57 to ‒0.3)	0.92 (0.9 to 0.94)	25	72	‒8.79 (‒11.57 to ‒6.18)	0.35 (0.29 to 0.43)
2005-2009	4787	4866	‒0.07 (‒0.18 to 0.04)	0.98 (0.96 to 1.01)	78	230	‒7.42 (‒8.69 to ‒6.12)	0.34 (0.3 to 0.39)
2010-2013	4026	4247	‒0.21 (‒0.32 to ‒0.1)	0.95 (0.92 to 0.97)	103	254	‒5 (‒5.99 to ‒4.07)	0.41 (0.36 to 0.46)
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic	1475	1408	0.24 (‒0.02 to 0.47)	1.05 (1.0 to 1.1)	19	59	‒9.24 (‒12.36 to ‒6.12)	0.32 (0.26 to 0.43)
Non-Hispanic Black	1372	1941	‒2.33 (‒2.65 to ‒2.01)	0.71 (0.68 to 0.74)	28	77	‒9.3 (‒12.25 to ‒6.65)	0.36 (0.3 to 0.44)
Non-Hispanic White	9191	9582	‒0.17 (‒0.25 to ‒0.09)	0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)	146	384	‒5.63 (‒6.51 to ‒4.78)	0.38 (0.35 to 0.42)
Otherc	1111	916	0.76 (0.54 to 0.98)	1.21 (1.14 to 1.3)	13	36	‒5.49 (‒8.2 to ‒2.97)	0.36 (0.27 to 0.52)
Age at diagnosis, y
<50	3824	3251	0.76 (0.62 to 0.91)	1.18 (1.14 to 1.22)	26	77	‒7.35 (‒9.51 to ‒5.24)	0.34 (0.28 to 0.42)
50-59	3124	2972	0.19 (0.06 to 0.33)	1.05 (1.01 to 1.09)	45	134	‒7.57 (‒9.38 to ‒5.94)	0.34 (0.28 to 0.39)
60-69	2792	2813	‒0.03 (‒0.15 to 0.09)	0.99 (0.96 to 1.03)	55	130	‒4.64 (‒6.00 to ‒3.35)	0.42 (0.36 to 0.51)
70-79	2142	2657	‒1 (‒1.18 to ‒0.8)	0.81 (0.78 to 0.84)	47	107	‒4.33 (‒5.7 to ‒3.01)	0.44 (0.37 to 0.53)
≥80	1299	2162	‒3.75 (‒4.12 to ‒3.41)	0.6 (0.58 to 0.62)	34	108	‒10.11 (‒12.59 to ‒7.83)	0.31 (0.26 to 0.38)
Tumor size, mm
<10	625	567	0.09 (0.02 to 0.16)	1.1 (1.02 to 1.19)	17	88	‒4.01 (‒5.03 to ‒3.00)	0.19 (0.16 to 0.25)
10-19	2906	2553	0.29 (0.21 to 0.37)	1.14 (1.1 to 1.18)	55	154	‒4.41 (‒5.47 to ‒3.48)	0.36 (0.31 to 0.41)
20-49	6455	7579	‒1.13 (‒1.28 to ‒0.96)	0.85 (0.83 to 0.87)	85	223	‒10.36 (‒12.44 to ‒8.52)	0.38 (0.34 to 0.43)
≥50	3195	3156	0.21 (‒0.34 to 0.72)	1.01 (0.98 to 1.04)	50	91	‒15.83 (‒21.18 to ‒10.69)	0.55 (0.47 to 0.64)
Tumor stage
Local	3980	3794	0.09 (0.03 to 0.15)	1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)	76	242	‒4.01 (‒4.74 to ‒3.35)	0.31 (0.28 to 0.36)
Regional	9201	10 061	‒0.82 (‒1.02 to ‒0.65)	0.91 (0.9 to 0.93)	130	314	‒12.57 (‒14.63 to ‒10.51)	0.41 (0.38 to 0.46)
Tumor grade
1	923	1003	‒0.1 (‒0.18 to ‒0.03)	0.92 (0.87 to 0.98)	15	78	‒4 (‒5.04 to ‒2.97)	0.19 (0.15 to 0.24)
2	5123	5366	‒0.16 (‒0.25 to ‒0.07)	0.95 (0.93 to 0.98)	84	240	‒5.76 (‒6.78 to ‒4.71)	0.35 (0.31 to 0.4)
3	7136	7486	‒0.46 (‒0.67 to ‒0.28)	0.95 (0.93 to 0.97)	108	238	‒9.82 (‒11.84 to ‒7.91)	0.45 (0.41 to 0.51)
Lymph node status
Negative	4172	4188	‒0.01 (‒0.07 to 0.05)	1 (0.97 to 1.03)	81	256	‒4.11 (‒4.81 to ‒3.41)	0.32 (0.28 to 0.36)
Positive	9010	9667	‒0.66 (‒0.83 to ‒0.47)	0.93 (0.92 to 0.95)	126	300	‒12.87 (‒14.96 to ‒10.7)	0.42 (0.38 to 0.47)
Histology
Ductal carcinoma	9662	10 432	‒0.34 (‒0.43 to ‒0.27)	0.93 (0.91 to 0.94)	140	358	‒5.6 (‒6.49 to ‒4.82)	0.39 (0.36 to 0.43)
Lobular carcinoma	1305	1301	0.02 (‒0.25 to 0.26)	1 (0.95 to 1.05)	30	86	‒8.72 (‒11.56 to ‒6.2)	0.35 (0.29 to 0.43)
Ductal and lobular carcinoma	1239	1208	0.12 (‒0.11 to 0.38)	1.03 (0.98 to 1.08)	21	57	‒7.26 (‒10.1 to ‒4.66)	0.37 (0.29 to 0.47)
Chemotherapy	7358	7725	‒0.31 (‒0.45 to ‒0.17)	0.95 (0.93 to 0.97)	77	208	‒9.06 (‒10.79 to ‒7.4)	0.37 (0.33 to 0.43)
Radiation therapy	7209	6609	0.35 (0.26 to 0.42)	1.09 (1.07 to 1.11)	75	174	‒5.06 (‒6.29 to ‒3.93)	0.43 (0.38 to 0.49)

^aAbsolute mortality difference (%) = predicted mortality ‒ observed mortality.

^bRelative mortality ratio = predicted mortality/observed mortality.

^c“Other” included non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic American Indian, and Alaska Native.