Table 3.
Difference between predicted and observed mortality among women with estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer who received chemotherapy
| First breast cancer |
Second breast cancer |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted No. of deaths | Observed No. of deaths | Absolute mortality difference (95% confidence interval)a | Relative mortality ratio (95% confidence interval)b | Predicted No. of deaths | Observed No. of deaths | Absolute mortality difference (95% confidence interval)a | Relative mortality ratio (95% confidence interval)b | |
| Overall (%) | 11 768 | 9343 | 4.54 (4.27 to 4.86) | 1.26 (1.24 to 1.28) | 210 | 229 | ‒1.69 (‒3.99 to 0.16) | 0.92 (0.83 to 1.01) |
| Year | ||||||||
| 2000-2004 | 4354 | 3618 | 4.36 (3.78 to 4.96) | 1.2 (1.17 to 1.24) | 23 | 31 | ‒7.84 (‒15.97 to 0.2) | 0.74 (0.58 to 1.01) |
| 2005-2009 | 4376 | 3402 | 4.74 (4.32 to 5.2) | 1.29 (1.25 to 1.32) | 94 | 113 | ‒3.87 (‒7.5 to ‒0.67) | 0.83 (0.72 to 0.97) |
| 2010-2013 | 3038 | 2323 | 4.49 (3.98 to 4.99) | 1.31 (1.26 to 1.35) | 93 | 85 | 1.51 (‒1.83 to 3.87) | 1.09 (0.91 to 1.29) |
| Race and ethnicity | ||||||||
| Hispanic | 1422 | 1164 | 4.16 (3.27 to 5.09) | 1.22 (1.17 to 1.29) | 27 | 34 | ‒5.19 (‒11.68 to 0.54) | 0.79 (0.64 to 1.03) |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 2151 | 2013 | 1.5 (0.78 to 2.24) | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) | 53 | 62 | ‒3.56 (‒8.72 to 1.12) | 0.85 (0.7 to 1.06) |
| Non-Hispanic White | 7187 | 5557 | 4.89 (4.52 to 5.26) | 1.29 (1.27 to 1.32) | 118 | 118 | 0 (‒2.85 to 2.56) | 1 (0.87 to 1.17) |
| Otherc | 983 | 604 | 8.46 (7.44 to 9.36) | 1.63 (1.51 to 1.74) | 12 | 15 | ‒3.66 (‒11.63 to 4.13) | 0.8 (0.57 to 1.42) |
| Age at diagnosis, y | ||||||||
| <50 | 4443 | 3676 | 3.68 (3.2 to 4.17) | 1.21 (1.18 to 1.24) | 51 | 72 | ‒7.09 (‒11.41 to ‒2.56) | 0.71 (0.6 to 0.87) |
| 50-59 | 3729 | 2779 | 5.61 (5.01 to 6.1) | 1.34 (1.3 to 1.38) | 71 | 69 | 0.52 (‒2.7 to 3.87) | 1.03 (0.87 to 1.26) |
| 60-69 | 2317 | 1730 | 5.54 (4.85 to 6.21) | 1.34 (1.29 to 1.4) | 48 | 48 | 0 (‒3.65 to 4.19) | 1 (0.83 to 1.31) |
| 70-79 | 1050 | 900 | 3.53 (2.35 to 4.63) | 1.17 (1.11 to 1.23) | 32 | 34 | ‒1.36 (‒8.35 to 4.59) | 0.94 (0.72 to 1.26) |
| ≥80 | 229 | 258 | ‒3.91 (‒7.05 to ‒0.79) | 0.89 (0.81 to 0.97) | 7 | 6 | 4.55 (‒9.6 to 19.62) | 1.17 (0.78 to 3.01) |
| Tumor size, mm | ||||||||
| <10 | 390 | 200 | 5.08 (4.39 to 5.75) | 1.95 (1.73 to 2.25) | 15 | 15 | 0 (‒4.67 to 4.34) | 1 (0.68 to 1.77) |
| 10-19 | 2222 | 1461 | 4.88 (4.44 to 5.28) | 1.52 (1.45 to 1.59) | 50 | 50 | 0 (‒3.33 to 2.83) | 1 (0.79 to 1.29) |
| 20-49 | 6176 | 5167 | 3.71 (3.26 to 4.12) | 1.2 (1.17 to 1.22) | 101 | 116 | ‒3.09 (‒6.66 to 0.71) | 0.87 (0.76 to 1.04) |
| ≥50 | 2981 | 2515 | 6.83 (5.72 to 7.87) | 1.19 (1.15 to 1.22) | 44 | 48 | ‒4.21 (‒12.02 to 4.9) | 0.92 (0.8 to 1.12) |
| Tumor stage | ||||||||
| Local | 3669 | 2415 | 4.35 (4.05 to 4.65) | 1.52 (1.46 to 1.57) | 83 | 82 | 0.14 (‒2.31 to 2.35) | 1.01 (0.83 to 1.26) |
| Regional | 8099 | 6928 | 4.77 (4.24 to 5.33) | 1.17 (1.15 to 1.19) | 127 | 147 | ‒4.96 (‒9.26 to ‒0.78) | 0.86 (0.77 to 0.98) |
| Tumor grade | ||||||||
| 1 | 50 | 57 | ‒0.99 (‒2.83 to 0.81) | 0.88 (0.71 to 1.13) | 1 | 6 | ‒25 (‒42.32 to ‒5.37) | 0.17 (0.15 to 0.46) |
| 2 | 1732 | 1151 | 7.06 (6.36 to 7.78) | 1.5 (1.44 to 1.59) | 37 | 35 | 0.97 (‒4.25 to 5.34) | 1.06 (0.8 to 1.44) |
| 3 | 9986 | 8135 | 4.17 (3.83 to 4.48) | 1.23 (1.21 to 1.25) | 172 | 188 | ‒1.79 (‒4.22 to 0.54) | 0.91 (0.82 to 1.03) |
| Lymph node status | ||||||||
| Negative | 4049 | 2784 | 4.11 (3.79 to 4.42) | 1.45 (1.41 to 1.51) | 88 | 90 | ‒0.27 (‒2.5 to 1.93) | 0.98 (0.82 to 1.2) |
| Positive | 7719 | 6559 | 5.14 (4.57 to 5.75) | 1.18 (1.15 to 1.2) | 122 | 139 | ‒4.59 (‒9.22 to ‒0.04) | 0.88 (0.78 to 1.00) |
| Histology | ||||||||
| Ductal carcinoma | 10 166 | 8114 | 4.4 (4.09 to 4.7) | 1.25 (1.23 to 1.28) | 175 | 203 | ‒2.91 (‒5.4 to ‒0.59) | 0.86 (0.77 to 0.97) |
| Lobular carcinoma | 141 | 112 | 6.49 (2.87 to 10.49) | 1.26 (1.1 to 1.5) | 6 | 5 | 4 (‒13.28 to 16.66) | 1.2 (0.63 to 3.39) |
| Ductal and lobular carcinoma | 287 | 265 | 2.19 (-0.49 to 4.66) | 1.08 (0.98 to 1.2) | 5 | 6 | ‒4.55 (‒19.38 to 12.38) | 0.83 (0.54 to 2.10) |
| Radiation therapy | 7185 | 5505 | 5.37 (4.98 to 5.74) | 1.31 (1.28 to 1.33) | 79 | 88 | ‒2.55 (‒6.91 to 1.71) | 0.9 (0.76 to 1.08) |
a
Absolute mortality difference=predicted ‒ observed.
b
Relative mortality ratio=predicted/observed.
c
“Other” included non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic American Indian, and Alaska Native.