Fig. 1. Calibration of simulated 561H allele frequency versus known frequency.
The 561H mutations are artificially introduced into the simulation (10 years before detection) in the Gasabo district and allowed to evolve and increase in frequency, as shown here through model completion in 2035. During model execution, the 561H alleles spread across the simulated landscape via human migration and are selected via local drug pressure. The simulated allele frequencies in five districts (median and IQR shown with blue line and shaded area, n = 100) are compared to known allele-frequency data5–7,9 (black dots). Gasabo is a district of Kigali City; Huye district is in southern Rwanda; Kirehe, Kayonza and Ngoma districts are in eastern Rwanda. The calibrated model is largely in agreement with known 561H spatial evolutionary patterns.