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. 2023 Sep 21;29(11):2775–2784. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02551-w

Extended Data Fig. 9. National 561H allele frequency under different assumptions on fitness cost of resistance.

Extended Data Fig. 9

Model trajectories show median, national 561H allele frequency (shaded area is 95% range) under previously accepted fitness cost assumptions24,32,48,49 which result in a 17% within-host fitness cost per year. Sensitivity analysis increasing the daily fitness cost 10-fold (Top Right), 25-fold (Bottom Left), and 50-fold (Bottom Right) show that the fitness cost used in our simulations is consistent with allele frequency measurements (black dots) taken between 2014 and 2019. A 10-fold larger fitness cost is also compatible with the data post-2014, but it is unknown which of these values is compatible with the unseen emergence pattern from prior to 2014.