Extended Data Fig. 9. National 561H allele frequency under different assumptions on fitness cost of resistance.
Model trajectories show median, national 561H allele frequency (shaded area is 95% range) under previously accepted fitness cost assumptions24,32,48,49 which result in a 17% within-host fitness cost per year. Sensitivity analysis increasing the daily fitness cost 10-fold (Top Right), 25-fold (Bottom Left), and 50-fold (Bottom Right) show that the fitness cost used in our simulations is consistent with allele frequency measurements (black dots) taken between 2014 and 2019. A 10-fold larger fitness cost is also compatible with the data post-2014, but it is unknown which of these values is compatible with the unseen emergence pattern from prior to 2014.