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. 2023 Sep 21;29(11):2775–2784. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02551-w

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 5 — (a) Mean daily rainfall over the period 2009–2019 reported from ERA5 global climate and weather projections⁶⁴. (b) Model’s relative transmission parameter (β) based on 54-day smoothing and normalization of rainfall data, note the lower bound of 0.4 during the low transmission season ensures some transmission is always present. (c) Comparison of simulated PfPR_2-10 to reference PfPR_2-10 from the Malaria Atlas Project⁵⁰, with large gray circles showing the 12-month mean PfPR_2-10 and smaller dark gray circles showing peak and trough PfPR_2-10 during a single year. (d) Relationship between model PfPR_2-10 and model’s malaria case counts (total and reported). Reported cases are total cases multiplied by the drug coverage.