Table 1.
Age-period-cohort model estimates for colon and rectum cancer incidence in men and women aged 20–54 (unscreened/lightly-screened) and 55–84 (heavily-screened), 2000–2014. Posterior medians are reported with 95% Credible Intervals in parentheses. Mean incidence rates are shown for the reference (mean) age group and birth cohort per 105 person-years. Evidence of heterogeneity is based on a Bayes Factor test of each standard deviation; we provide a verbal summary of the strength of evidence following Kass and Raftery (1995).
| Model Parameter | Unscreened/lightly-screened | Heavily-screened |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Colon cancer | ||
| Mean incidence rate (per 105 person-years) | 5.23 (4.74, 5.70) | 120.39 (109.17, 134.09) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 15.20 (8.74, 23.94) | 17.00 (10.73, 27.86) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 11.09 (8.31, 13.97) | 8.11 (7.22, 9.10) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
|
| ||
| Age-adjusted trend (Net Drift) (% / yr) | 2.11 (1.66, 2.63) | −3.58 (−4.15, −3.01) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 0.44 (0.09, 0.91) | 0.90 (0.54, 1.52) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Strong | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 0.67 (0.30, 1.08) | 0.73 (0.55, 0.93) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
|
| ||
| Longitudinal Age Trend (LAT) (% / yr) | 15.12 (14.47, 15.76) | 2.88 (2.41, 3.35) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 0.70 (0.32, 1.23) | 0.70 (0.39, 1.20) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 0.67 (0.24, 1.11) | 0.58 (0.33, 0.83) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
|
| ||
| Rectum cancer | ||
| Mean incidence rate (per 105 person-years) | 3.33 (3.06, 3.66) | 46.12 (41.87, 50.86) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 15.81 (9.45, 25.42) | 15.64 (9.68, 25.91) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 10.44 (7.67, 13.41) | 10.72 (9.38, 12.15) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Very strong | Very strong |
|
| ||
| Age-adjusted trend (Net Drift) (% / yr) | 2.44 (1.94, 2.98) | −3.29 (−3.96, −2.64) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 0.34 (0.01, 0.93) | 1.03 (0.63, 1.67) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Positive | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 0.28 (0.02, 0.60) | 0.50 (0.20, 0.85) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Positive | Strong |
|
| ||
| Longitudinal Age Trend (LAT) (% / yr) | 16.07 (15.44, 16.70) | 0.07 (−0.36, 0.44) |
| Between-state SD (%) | 0.41 (0.03, 1.02) | 0.53 (0.22, 0.96) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Positive | Very strong |
| Within-state SD (%) | 0.23 (0.01, 0.65) | 0.36 (0.03, 0.75) |
| Evidence of heterogeneity | Weak | Positive |