Table 2:

Estimated expected value (median) and [range] of global iVDPV-related introductions for 100 stochastic iterations for the time horizon of 2022–2035 for the scenarios modeled and by type.

	Expected value of iVDPV-related introductions (median) [range]
Scenario	iVDPV1	iVDPV2	iVDPV3	Total
No PAVD base case	22 (21) [9 – 46]	21 (21) [2 – 53]	10 (10) [1 – 22]	53 (53) [28 – 81]
Passive PAVD, 40% effectiveness	22 (21) [9 – 46]	21 (20) [1 – 53]	10 (10) [1 – 22]	53 (52) [28 – 80]
Active PAVD, 90% effectiveness	14 (13) [5 – 31]	7 (6) [0 – 17]	10 (9) [1 – 22]	30 (29) [15 – 52]

Abbreviations:iVDPV(1,2,3), immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus (type 1, 2, 3); PAVD, polio antiviral drug