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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2023 Nov 27.
Published in final edited form as: Med Decis Making. 2023 Aug 14;43(7-8):850–862. doi: 10.1177/0272989X231191127

Table 3:

Estimated expected value (median) and [range] of poliovirus cases in 100 stochastic iterations for 2022–2035 for the scenarios modeled.

Scenario Type 1 cases (median) [range] Type 2 cases (median) [range] Type 3 cases (median) [range] Total cases (median) [range]
No PAVD base case 165,740 (163,625) [36,166 – 291,839] 108,374 (110,865) [32,488 – 170,484] 653 (450) [446 – 9,717] 274,767 (270,821) [122,670 – 423,569]
Passive PAVD 40% effectiveness 165,698 (162,030) [36,166 – 291,839] 108,254 (110,865) [32,488 – 170,485] 653 (450) [446 – 9,717] 274,605 (270,821) [122,670 – 423,569]
Active PAVD 90% effectiveness 164,008 (160,430) [36,166 – 297,337] 108,612 (112,202) [32,487 – 170,485] 560 (450) [446 – 8,252] 273,181 (270,809) [115,604 – 418,228]

Abbreviations:PAVD, polio antiviral drug