Figure 3.

Simple demographic models and qpAdm test performance (QTP). (A-D) Topological structures of the four simple demographic models. (E-H) QTP and number of plausible qpAdm models across the range of median pairwise F_ST values calculated on the S1, S2, R1, R2, and R3 populations. For each simulation iteration we represent the counts of the number of plausible single and two-source qpAdm models (21 is the maximum possible) with orange dots and the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (loess) computed in R and shown with the orange line. We show the QTP value for each simulation iteration with blue dots and the loess smoothing with the blue line. (I-L) Logistic GAM probability for the QTP-binary response variable with admixture date (T_admix) and median pairwise F_ST as predictor variables. The gray dots are unique combinations of simulation parameters placed in the space of predictor variables. Vertical dotted lines in plots E-L show the median pairwise F_ST values at the approximate Iron (0.008), and Bronze Age (0.013) periods.