TABLE 2.

Parameter estimates and uncertainty of the multistate models.

Parameter	Transition	Final multistate model estimated value	Final multistate model with dose‐dependent estimated value
		(95% CI) a	(95% CI) a
			500 mg q2w	1200 mg q2w
$k_{12}$ b	Stable disease → Response	0.032 (0.021, 0.050)	0.037 (0.020, 0.080)	0.029 (0.019, 0.054)
${\text{scale}}_{13}$ c ${\text{shape}}_{13}$ c	Stable disease → Progression	0.157 (0.086, 0.341) 0.427 (0.247, 0.631)	0.371 (0.148, 2.339) 0.292 (0.072, 0.568)	0.089 (0.053, 0.187) 0.584 (0.330, 0.891)
$k_{14}$ b	Stable disease → Unknown	0.012 (0.006, 0.023)	0.020 (0.010, 0.050)	0.007 (0.003, 0.020)
$k_{16}$ d	Stable disease → Death	–
$k_{23}$ b	Response → Progression	0.013 (0.008, 0.022)	0.012 (0.006, 0.027)	0.013 (0.008, 0.028)
$k_{24}$ b	Response → Unknown	0.003 (0.001, 0.008)	0.002 (0.001, 0.009)	0.004 (0.002, 0.012)
$k_{26}$ b	Response → Death	0.002 (0.0008, 0.006)	0.002 (0.001, 0.010)	0.002 (0.001, 0.009)
${\text{scale}}_{36}$ c ${\text{shape}}_{36}$ c	Progression → Death	0.023 (0.015, 0.044) 0.631 (0.439, 0.862)	0.028 (0.016, 0.091) 0.542 (0.320, 0.771)	0.015 (0.010, 0.031) 0.941 (0.510, 1.378)
$k_{46}$ b	Unknown → Death	0.008 (0.004, 0.015)	0.007 (0.004, 0.020)	0.007 (0.003, 0.018)
$k_{1,3,4-5}$ b	Stable disease and Progression and Unknown → Dropout	0.003 (0.002, 0.005)	0.001 (0.001, 0.004)	0.004 (0.003, 0.008)
${\beta }_{\text{METAS}}\mathrm{on}{k}_{13}$ e	Stable disease → Progression	−1.431 (−2.570, −0.497)	−1.430 (−2.398, −0.489)

Abbreviation: CI, confidence interval.

^a Obtained from Sampling Importance Resampling.

^b Exponential distribution (week‐1).

^c Weibull distribution, $k_{\mathit{ij}}={\text{scale}}_{\mathit{ij}}\bullet {\text{shape}}_{\mathit{ij}}\bullet {\left({\text{scale}}_{\mathit{ij}}\bullet t\right)}^{{\text{shape}}_{\mathit{ij}}-1}$, t is time since treatment initiation.

^d Fixed to the Gompertz‐Makeham distribution.

^e Coefficient of the metastasis at baseline on $k_{13.}$