Table 1.
Baseline Predictor Responsesa
| Model Development | External Validation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STarT MSK-Pilot | KAPS | Total | POC | 2–4 Wk | |
| n = 214 | n = 465 | n = 679 | n = 275 | n = 586 | |
| Age (at consultation, y), mean (SD) | 58.2 (15.9) | 54.6 (17) | 55.7 (16.7) | 56.6 (15.5) | 58.5 (16.0) |
| Sex, female | 134 (62.6) | 267 (57.4) | 401 (59.1) | 167 (60.7) | 353 (60.2) |
| Primary pain site, neck | 59 (27.6) | 57 (12.3) | 116 (17.1) | 61 (22.2) | 129 (22.0) |
| Pain duration | |||||
| <3 mo | 67 (31.3) | 116 (25.0) | 183 (27.0) | 63 (22.9) | 140 (23.9) |
| 3–6 mo | 33 (15.4) | 67 (14.4) | 100 (14.7) | 41 (14.9) | 91 (15.5) |
| 7–12 mo | 29 (13.6) | 33 (7.1) | 62 (9.1) | 33 (12.0) | 70 (12.0) |
| Over 1 y | 85 (39.7) | 240 (51.6) | 325 (47.9) | 134 (48.7) | 278 (47.4) |
| Comorbidities (self-reported) | |||||
| Diabetes | 19 (8.9) | 41 (8.8) | 60 (8.8) | 23 (8.4) | 59 (10.0) |
| Respiratory problem | 37 (17.3) | 67 (14.4) | 104 (15.3) | 48 (17.5) | 102 (17.4) |
| Heart problem | 65 (30.4) | 118 (25.4) | 183 (27.0) | 75 (27.3) | 171 (29.2) |
| Chronic fatigue | 14 (6.5) | 11 (2.4) | 25 (3.7) | 16 (5.8) | 43 (7.3) |
| Anxiety/depression | 48 (22.4) | 97 (20.9) | 145 (21.4) | 61 (22.2) | 147 (25.1) |
| Other | 46 (21.5) | 121 (26.0) | 167 (24.6) | 71 (25.8) | 132 (22.5) |
| EQ5D—Usual activities | |||||
| No problem | 44 (20.6) | 138 (29.7) | 182 (26.8) | 40 (14.6) | 96 (16.4) |
| Slight problem | 80 (37.4) | 139 (29.9) | 219 (32.3) | 95 (34.6) | 206 (35.2) |
| Moderate problem | 52 (24.3) | 106 (22.8) | 158 (23.3) | 86 (31.3) | 183 (31.2) |
| Severe problem | 28 (13.1) | 60 (12.9) | 88 (13.0) | 38 (13.8) | 70 (12.0) |
| Unable/extreme problem | 10 (4.7) | 15 (3.2) | 25 (3.7) | 12 (4.6) | 23 (3.9) |
| Help to read instructions | |||||
| Never | 162 (75.7) | 354 (76.1) | 516 (76.0) | 221 (80.4) | 476 (82.2) |
| Rarely | 33 (15.4) | 48 (10.3) | 81 (11.9) | 22 (8.0) | 51 (8.7) |
| Sometimes | 9 (4.2) | 36 (7.7) | 45 (6.6) | 19 (6.9) | 32 (5.5) |
| Often | 2 (0.9) | 14 (3.0) | 16 (2.4) | 9 (3.3) | 19 (3.2) |
| Always | 3 (1.4) | 13 (2.8) | 16 (2.4) | 1 (0.4) | 2 (0.3) |
| NDI—Baseline score, mean (SD) | 16.1 (8) | 17.5 (8.7) | 16.6 (8.7) | ||
| NDI %—Baseline score, mean (SD) | 32.2 (16) | 35.1 (17.4) | 33.2 (17.4) | ||
| RMDQ—Baseline score, median (IQR) | 9 (5–13) | 10 (5–15) | 9 (5–14) | ||
| STarT MSK Tool score (baseline), median (IQR) | 6 (4–7) | 7 (4–9) | 7 (4–9) | 7 (5–8) | 7 (5–9) |
| STarT MSK Tool score subgroup (baseline) | |||||
| High risk | 29 (13.6) | 118 (25.4) | 147 (21.6) | 95 (34.6) | 140 (23.9) |
| Medium risk | 105 (49.1) | 176 (37.9) | 281 (41.4) | 120 (43.6) | 273 (46.6) |
| Low risk | 63 (29.4) | 125 (26.9) | 188 (27.7) | 40 (14.6) | 101 (17.4) |
| 1) Pain intensity, median (IQR) On average, how intense was your pain [where 0 is “no pain” and 10 is “pain as bad as it could be”]? | 7 (5–8) | 7 (4–8) | 7 (5–8) | 7 (6–8) | 7 (5–8) |
| 2) Pain self-efficacy Do you often feel unsure about how to manage your pain condition? | 144 (67.3) | 225 (48.4) | 369 (54.3) | 163 (59.3) | 279 (47.6) |
| 3) Pain impact Over the last 2 wk, have you been bothered a lot by your pain? | 113 (52.8) | 330 (71.0) | 443 (65.2) | 228 (82.9) | 462 (78.8) |
| 4) Walking short distances only Have you only been able to walk short distances because of your pain? | 117 (54.7) | 248 (53.3) | 365 (53.8) | 143 (52.0) | 344 (58.7) |
| 5) Pain elsewhere Have you had troublesome joint or muscle pain in more than 1 part of your body? | 147 (68.7) | 304 (65.4) | 451 (66.4) | 126 (45.8) | 398 (67.9) |
| 6) Thinking their condition will last a long time Do you think your condition will last a long time? | 154 (72.0) | 315 (67.7) | 469 (69.1) | 211 (76.7) | 477 (81.4) |
| 7) Other important health problems Do you have other important health problems? | 81 (37.9) | 183 (39.4) | 264 (38.9) | 88 (32.0) | 242 (41.3) |
| 8) Emotional well-being Has pain made you feel down or depressed in the last 2 wk? | 132 (61.7) | 284 (61.1) | 416 (61.3) | 170 (61.8) | 388 (66.2) |
| 9) Fear of pain-related movement Do you feel it is unsafe for a person with a condition like yours to be physically active? | 56 (26.2) | 133 (28.6) | 189 (27.8) | 144 (52.4) | 322 (55.0) |
| 10) Pain duration Have you had your current pain problem for 6 months or more? | 114 (53.3) | 219 (47.1) | 333 (49.0) | 121 (44.0) | 345 (58.9) |
a Baseline characteristics and responses to the Keele STarT MSK tool items (“As you answer these questions, think about how you have been over the last two weeks:”) in model development and external validation data sets. Values are n (%) unless otherwise stated. EQ5D = EuroQol 5 Dimension; IQR = interquartile range; KAPS = Keele Aches and Pains Study; NDI = Neck Disability Index; POC = point of consultation; RMDQ = Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire; SD = standard deviation.