Table 3.
Adjusted cumulative risk of cervical cancer among women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) undergoing active surveillance or immediate large loop excision of transformation zone (LLETZ), depicting estimates for model 1 and 2. Values are percentages with 95% confidence intervals
| Model | 1 year | 2 years | 5 years | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 * | ||||||
| Crude: | ||||||
| Active surveillance | 0.27 (0.19 to 0.35) | 0.46 (0.35 to 0.57) | 0.94 (0.75 to 1.13) | 1.61 (1.29 to 1.93) | 2.20 (1.72 to 2.69) | 2.75 (2.10 to 3.40) |
| LLETZ | 0.36 (0.32 to 0.40) | 0.44 (0.38 to 0.50) | 0.59 (0.49 to 0.68) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.85) | 0.82 (0.66 to 0.97) | 0.89 (0.71 to 1.07) |
| Adjusted: | ||||||
| Active surveillance | 0.35 (0.23 to 0.47) | 0.56 (0.40 to 0.71) | 1.04 (0.81 to 1.26) | 1.66 (1.33 to 1.99) | 2.18 (1.73 to 2.64) | 2.65 (2.07 to 3.23) |
| LLETZ | 0.30 (0.25 to 0.35) | 0.37 (0.31 to 0.44) | 0.50 (0.40 to 0.59) | 0.62 (0.48 to 0.75) | 0.70 (0.54 to 0.86) | 0.76 (0.58 to 0.95) |
| Model 2 † | ||||||
| Crude: | ||||||
| Active surveillance | 0.17 (0.09 to 0.25) | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.44) | 0.79 (0.62 to 0.97) | 1.52 (1.13 to 1.92) | 2.23 (1.51 to 2.94) | 2.91 (1.82 to 4.01) |
| LLETZ | 0.36 (0.32 to 0.40) | 0.44 (0.38 to 0.50) | 0.59 (0.49 to 0.68) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.85) | 0.82 (0.66 to 0.97) | 0.89 (0.71 to 1.07) |
| Adjusted: | ||||||
| Active surveillance | 0.24 (0.12 to 0.36) | 0.41 (0.26 to 0.56) | 0.83 (0.63 to 1.04) | 1.42 (1.05 to 1.80) | 1.94 (1.32 to 2.56) | 2.42 (1.51 to 3.32) |
| LLETZ | 0.30 (0.25 to 0.35) | 0.37 (0.31 to 0.44) | 0.50 (0.40 to 0.59) | 0.62 (0.48 to 0.75) | 0.70 (0.54 to 0.86) | 0.76 (0.58 to 0.95) |
*
Follow-up from date of CIN2 diagnosis.
†
Follow-up from date of CIN2 diagnosis. Women in active surveillance group who were treated with LLETZ owing to progression or persistent CIN2 within 28 months of follow-up were censored at date of LLETZ.