Table 2. . Bone fracture probabilities [13], mortality risk without fractures [22] and mortality risk increase with fractures (calculated from [21.]).
| Bone fracture probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Treatment | Mean bone fracture probability | 95% CI | SD | Distribution | Alpha | Beta | |||
| 1 | Risedronate GR | 0.0257 | 0.0204–0.0323 | 0.0030 | Beta | 69.8 | 2646.2 | |||
| Alendronate | 0.0326 | 0.0266–0.0400 | 0.0034 | Beta | 87.9 | 2609.9 | ||||
| 2 | Risedronate GR | 0.0510 | 0.0434–0.0599 | 0.0042 | Beta | 139.2 | 2591.4 | |||
| Alendronate | 0.0591 | 0.0508–0.0686 | 0.0045 | Beta | 159.3 | 2536.5 | ||||
| 3 | Risedronate GR | 0.0708 | 0.0615–0.0814 | 0.0050 | Beta | 180.6 | 2371.0 | |||
| Alendronate | 0.0867 | 0.0765–0.0981 | 0.0055 | Beta | 226.0 | 2380.9 | ||||
| 4 | Risedronate GR | 0.0952 | 0.0836–0.1083 | 0.0063 | Beta | 206.4 | 1962.0 | |||
| Alendronate | 0.1046 | 0.1046–0.1308 | 0.0066 | Beta | 270.4 | 2041.2 | ||||
| 5 | Risedronate GR | 0.1185 | 0.1044–0.1343 | 0.0076 | Beta | 212.6 | 1581.7 | |||
| Alendronate | 0.1444 | 0.1297–0.1607 | 0.0079 | Beta | 285.1 | 1689.4 | ||||
| Mortality risk without bone fracture and mortality risk increase with bone fracture vs normal population | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 60 years | 61 years | 62 years | 63 years | 64 years | |||||
| Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 1 | Year 2+ | |
| Mortality risk without bone fractures | 0.0061 | 0.0061 | 0.0067 | 0.0067 | 0.0073 | 0.0073 | 0.0081 | 0.0081 | 0.0088 | 0.0088 |
| Mortality risk increase with bone fractures | 5.42 | 3.07 | 5.42 | 3.07 | 5.42 | 3.07 | 5.42 | 3.07 | 5.42 | 3.07 |
CI: Confidence interval; GR: Gastro-resistant; SD: Standard deviation.