Table 1. . Model inputs: base-case, deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
| Parameter | Base-case value (mean/ percentage) | Deterministic sensitivity analysis | Probabilistic sensitivity analysis |
Source | Ref. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low value | High value | Distribution and values | ||||
| Discount rates, % | ||||||
| Discount rate for costs (per year) | 3.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | Not included | ICER guidelines | [62] |
| Discount rate for health outcomes (per year) | 3.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | ICER guidelines | [62] | |
| Baseline patient characteristics | ||||||
| Mean age (years) | 44.5 | 35.6 | 53.4 | Normal (μ = 44.5, σ = 4.54) | PRINCE trial baseline characteristics | [47,63] |
| Proportion of females, % | 45.28 | 32.23 | 58.67 | Beta (α = 24, β = 29) | PRINCE trial baseline characteristics | [63] |
| Mean weight (kg) | 83.86 | 67.09 | 100.63 | Normal (μ = 83.86, σ = 8.56) | CDC Vital and Health Statistics | [64] |
| Health state utilities | ||||||
| Hb normalized | 0.869 | 0.782 | 0.956 | Beta (μ = 0.869, σ = 0.039) | Calculations based on PRINCE trial patients' level data | |
| Hb not normalized | 0.820 | 0.738 | 0.902 | Beta (μ = 0.820, σ = 0.037) | ||
| Transfusion required | 0.818 | 0.736 | 0.900 | Beta (μ = 0.818, σ = 0.038) | ||
| General population utilities | ||||||
| Age 18–29 years | 0.922 | Not included | Not included | Sullivan, 2006 | [65] | |
| Age 30–39 years | 0.901 | |||||
| Age 40–49 years | 0.871 | |||||
| Age 50–59 years | 0.842 | |||||
| Age 60–69 years | 0.823 | |||||
| Age 70–79 years | 0.790 | |||||
| Age 80+ years | 0.736 | |||||
| Treatment costs | ||||||
| Price per package, $ | ||||||
| Pegcetacoplan | 4403.84 | Not included | Not included | REDBOOK | [66] | |
| Eculizumab | 6523.00 | |||||
| Ravulizumab | 6404.00 | |||||
| Dosage distributions, % | ||||||
| Pegcetacoplan – 1080 mg twice weekly | 100 | Not included | Dirichlet (x1 = 100.00%, α1 = 35, x2 = 0%, α2 = 0) | Prescribing information | [32,42] | |
| Pegcetacoplan – 1080 mg every 3 days | 0 | |||||
| Eculizumab – 900 mg every 2 weeks | 100 | Dirichlet (x1 = 100.00%, α1 = 121, x2 = 0.00%, α2 = 0, x3 = 0.00%, α3 = 0, x4 = 0.00%, α4 = 0) | ||||
| Eculizumab – 900 mg every 11 days | 0 | |||||
| Eculizumab – 1200 mg every 2 weeks | 0 | |||||
| Eculizumab – 1500 mg every 2 weeks | 0 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – 40–60 kg | 30.23 | 21.61 | 45.34 | Dirichlet (x1 = 30.23%, α1 = 3165, x2 = 33.47%, α2 = 3504, x3 = 36.31%, α3 = 3802) | Distribution based on mean weight | [24] |
| Ravulizumab – 60–100 kg | 33.47 | 23.93 | 26.22 | |||
| Ravulizumab – 100+ kg | 36.31 | 28.44 | 54.46 | |||
| Total cost per cycle, $ | ||||||
| Supportive treatment | 4137.55 | 3310.04 | 4965.06 | Gamma (μ = 4137.55, σ = 445.86) | REDBOOK PRINCE trial | [47,63,66] |
| Administration costs | ||||||
| Pegcetacoplan | 134.96 | 107.97 | 161.96 | Gamma (μ = 134.96, σ = 14.54) | CMS Fee Schedule | [67] |
| IV administration cost (first hour) | 140.16 | 112.13 | 168.19 | Gamma (μ = 140.16, σ = 15.10) | ||
| IV administration cost (subsequent hours) | 29.76 | 23.81 | 35.71 | Gamma (μ = 29.76, σ = 3.21) | ||
| Administration times, minutes | ||||||
| Eculizumab – maintenance dose | 35 | Not included | Not included | Prescribing information | [32] | |
| Eculizumab – additional observation time after administration | 60 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – loading dose, 40–60 kg | 114 | Prescribing information | [34] | |||
| Ravulizumab – loading dose, 60–100 kg | 102 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – loading dose, 100+ kg | 108 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – maintenance dose, 40–60 kg | 140 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – maintenance dose, 60–100 kg | 120 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – maintenance dose, 100+ kg | 132 | |||||
| Ravulizumab – additional observation time after administration | 60 | |||||
| Vaccine costs, $ | ||||||
| Meningitis (A, C, Y, W–135) | 70.97 | 56.78 | 85.17 | Gamma (μ = 70.97, σ = 7.65) | CDC Vaccine Price List | [68] |
| Meningitis (B) | 103.43 | 82.75 | 124.12 | Gamma (μ = 103.43, σ = 11.15) | ||
| PCV13 | 137.22 | 109.78 | 164.66 | Gamma (μ = 137.22, σ = 14.79) | ||
| PPSV23 | 149.90 | 119.92 | 179.88 | Gamma (μ = 149.90, σ = 16.15) | ||
| Monitoring | ||||||
| Number of hematologist visits per cycle – hemoglobin normalized | 1 | Not included | Not included | Clinical experts | ||
| Number of hematologist visits per cycle – hemoglobin not normalized | 1 | |||||
| Number of hematologist visits per cycle – transfusion required | 13 | |||||
| Hematologist visit cost, $ | 134.96 | 107.97 | 161.96 | Gamma (μ = 134.96, σ = 14.54) | CMS Fee Schedule | [67] |
| Blood tests related parameters | ||||||
| Number of blood tests per cycle – hemoglobin normalized | 2 | Not included | Not included | Clinical experts | ||
| Number of blood tests per cycle – hemoglobin not normalized | 2 | |||||
| Number of blood tests per cycle – transfusion required | 4 | |||||
| Blood test cost, $ | 7.77 | 6.22 | 9.32 | Gamma (μ = 7.77, σ = 0.84) | CMS Fee Schedule | [67] |
| Blood transfusions | ||||||
| Total number – initial | 2.65 | 2.12 | 3.18 | Normal (μ = 2.65, σ = 0.27) | Calculations based on PRINCE trial data | [63] |
| Increment per cycle | 0.2 | 0.16 | 0.24 | Normal (μ = 0.20, σ = 0.02) | Clinical experts | |
| Maximum number in 1 cycle | 8.17 | 6.54 | 9.80 | Normal (μ = 8.17, σ = 0.83) | Calculations based on PRINCE trial data | [63] |
| QALY loss per transfusion | -0.002 | -0.002621108 | -0.001747405 | Beta (μ,σ) (μ = -0.002, σ = 0.0004) | Calculations based on PRINCE trial patients' level data | [63] |
| Cost per transfusion, $ | 2744.32 | 2195.46 | 3293.19 | Gamma (μ = 2744.32, σ = 295.73) | Cheng, 2021 | [2] |
| AEs | ||||||
| AEs probability – pegcetacoplan – breakthrough hemolysis | 4.3% | 3.44% | 5.15% | Beta (μ = 0.0429, σ = 0.0041) | PRINCE trial data | |
| AEs probability – eculizumab – breakthrough hemolysis | 10.7% | 8.56% | 10.27% | Beta (μ = 0.1070, σ = 0.0109) | Matching adjusted indirect comparison | [69] |
| AEs probability – eculizumab – major adverse Vascular Events | 0.8% | 0.66% | 0.80% | Beta (μ = 0.0083, σ = 0.0014) | ||
| AEs probability – ravulizumab – breakthrough hemolysis | 4.0% | 3.20% | 3.84% | Beta (μ = 0.0400, σ = 0.0038) | ||
| AEs probability – ravulizumab – major adverse Vascular Events | 1.6% | 1.28% | 1.54% | Beta (μ = 0.0160, σ = 0.0020) | ||
| AEs QALY lost – breakthrough hemolysis | 0.0006 | 0.0005 | 0.0006 | Beta (μ = 0.0006, σ = 0.0001) | O'Connell, 2020 | [58] |
| AEs QALY lost – major adverse vascular events | 0.0006 | 0.0005 | 0.0006 | Beta (μ = 0.0006, σ = 0.0001) | Sullivan, 2006 | [65] |
| AEs treatment cost – major adverse vascular events | $24,190 | $19,352.18 | $23,222.62 | Gamma (μ = 24,190.23, σ = 2,606.72) | Dasta, 2015 | [70] |
AE: Adverse event; IV: Intravenous; QALY: Quality-adjusted life-year.