Table 1.
Key Inputs in the Model
| Parameter | Value | Range | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event rate per 100 patient-years, PEACE population with AMI | ||||
| Nonfatal MI | 1.7 | NA | NA | [21] |
| Nonfatal stroke | 0.9 | NA | NA | |
| Cardiovascular-related death | 2.2 | NA | NA | |
| All-cause mortality | 3.1 | NA | NA | |
| Coronary revascularization | 6.4 | NA | NA | |
| Event rate per 100 patient-years, trial population of FOURIER trial | ||||
| Nonfatal MI | 2.5 | 2.2–2.7 | Lognormal | [7] |
| Nonfatal stroke | 0.9 | 0.8–1.1 | Lognormal | |
| Cardiovascular-related death | 0.8 | 0.7–1.0 | Lognormal | |
| Coronary revascularization | 3.9 | 3.6–4.3 | Lognormal | |
| Intervention effect, hazard ratio | ||||
| Nonfatal MI (year 1) | 0.79 | 0.67–0.93 | Lognormal | [7, 24] |
| Nonfatal MI (beyond 1y) | 0.64 | 0.54–0.76 | Lognormal | |
| Nonfatal stroke (year 1) | 0.52 | 0.29–0.92 | Lognormal | |
| Nonfatal stroke (beyond 1y) | 0.52 | 0.29–0.92 | Lognormal | |
| Coronary revascularization (year 1) | 0.84 | 0.74–0.96 | Lognormal | |
| Coronary revascularization (beyond 1y) | 0.72 | 0.63–0.82 | Lognormal | |
| Intervention effect, rate ratio per 1mmol/l LDL-C reduction | ||||
| Nonfatal MI (year 1) | 0.84 | 0.76–0.92 | Lognormal | [4] |
| Nonfatal MI (beyond 1y) | 0.74 | 0.70–0.78 | Lognormal | |
| Nonfatal stroke (year 1) | 0.96 | 0.82–1.12 | Lognormal | |
| Nonfatal stroke (beyond 1y) | 0.81 | 0.74–0.88 | Lognormal | |
| Coronary revascularization (year 1) | 0.88 | 0.80–0.97 | Lognormal | |
| Coronary revascularization (beyond 1y) | 0.71 | 0.67–0.75 | Lognormal | |
| Vascular causes of death | 0.86 | 0·82 − 0·90 | Lognormal | |
| Annual cost of drugs, CNY | ||||
| Evolocumab (140 mg/2W) | 7405 | NA | NA | [28] |
| Evolocumab (420 mg/M) | 10365 | NA | NA | [28] |
| Statins | 2855 | 2141.25–3568.75 | Gamma | [28] |
| Cost of cardiovascular events, CNY | ||||
| Direct cost | ||||
| Nonfatal MI (year 1) | 26518.90 | 19889.18–33148.63 | Gamma | [2] |
| Nonfatal MI (beyond 1y) | 13377.54 | 10033.15–16721.92 | Gamma | [25] |
| Nonfatal stroke (year 1) | 12634.51 | 9475.88–15793.14 | Gamma | [2] |
| Nonfatal stroke (beyond 1y) | 10141.98 | 7606.49–12677.48 | Gamma | [27] |
| Coronary revascularization | 116279.90 | 87209.93–145349.88 | Gamma | [2] |
| Stroke + Post MI | 13637.40 | 10228.05–17046.76 | Gamma | [37] |
| Death due to stroke | 14063.87 | 10547.9–17579.83 | Gamma | [27, 38] |
| Death due to MI | 22687.86 | 17015.89–28359.82 | Gamma | [26, 39–41] |
| Indirect cost | ||||
| Nonfatal MI (year 1) | 2037.44 | 1528.08–2546.8 | Gamma | [2] |
| Nonfatal stroke (year 1) | 2629.56 | 1972.17–3286.95 | Gamma | [2] |
| Nonfatal stroke (beyond 1y) | 13312.44 | 9984.33–16640.55 | Gamma | [29] |
| Coronary revascularization | 5282.26 | 3961.69–6602.82 | Gamma | [2] |
| Stroke + Post MI | 2766.90 | 2075.17–3458.62 | Gamma | [37] |
| Death due to stroke | 3395.74 | 2546.81–4244.68 | Gamma | [42] |
| Death due to MI | 2489.37 | 1867.03–3111.71 | Gamma | [26, 39–41] |
| Utility | ||||
| Nonfatal MI (year 1) | 0.866 | 0.847–0.886 | Beta | [21, 33, 43] |
| Nonfatal MI (beyond 1y) | 0.950 | 0.942–0.958 | Beta | [32, 33, 43] |
| MI 2+(year 1) | 0.819 | 0.793–0.846 | Beta | [33, 43] |
| MI 2+ (beyond 1y) | 0.940 | 0.905–0.975 | Beta | [32, 33, 43] |
| Nonfatal stroke (year 1) | 0.510 | 0.470–0.540 | Beta | [34] |
| Nonfatal stroke (beyond 1y) | 0.750 | 0.710–0.800 | Beta | [34, 44] |
| Stroke 2+ (year 1) | 0.340 | 0.320–0.360 | Beta | [35] |
| Stroke 2+ (beyond 1y) | 0.420 | 0.390–0.451 | Beta | [35] |
| Injection site reaction, disutility | -0.0003 | -0.002–0 | Beta | [20] |
AMI, Acute myocardial infarction; CNY, Chinese Yuan; LDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; MI, myocardial infarction; NA, not applicable;