Table 7.
Fixed effects models of Probability of wanting a child during the next 24 months (YES answer) by local Optimism about the future. Childless Source Elaboration of the author based on SHP 2004–2021
| First child | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Variance | |||||
| Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Community optimism about the future (mean−centered) | 0.207 | 0.115 | 0.028 | |||
| (−0.352–0.767) | (−0.455–0.685) | (−0.502–0.558) | ||||
| Community variance in optimism about the future (mean−centered) | −0.462 | −0.682** | −0.615** | |||
| (−0.941–0.017) | (−1.119–−0.246) | (−1.052–−0.179) | ||||
| Employment uncertainty | ||||||
| (ref: Employed, very or quite secure) | ||||||
| Employed, a bit or very insecure job | 0.180 | 0.188 | ||||
| (−0.055–0.416) | (−0.017–0.393) | |||||
| Unemployed | 0.012 | 0.037 | ||||
| (−0.269–0.292) | (−0.205–0.278) | |||||
| Out of the LF | −0.015 | 0.022 | ||||
| (−0.260–0.229) | (−0.234–0.278) | |||||
| Student | −0.014 | −0.011 | ||||
| (−0.213–0.185) | (−0.205–0.184) | |||||
| Disposable income (mean−centered) | 0.017* | 0.012 | ||||
| (0.001–0.032) | (−0.003–0.027) | |||||
| Education (ref: upper secondary) | ||||||
| Primary or low secondary | −0.604*** | −0.563*** | −0.556*** | −0.534*** | ||
| (−0.801–−0.406) | (−0.774–−0.353) | (−0.775–−0.338) | (−0.764–−0.304) | |||
| Tertiary | −0.214* | −0.192 | −0.154 | −0.147 | ||
| (−0.420–−0.008) | (−0.398–0.015) | (−0.360–0.052) | (−0.351–0.057) | |||
| Age (ref: 30–34) | ||||||
| 15–19 | −0.690*** | 0.039 | −0.024 | −0.866*** | 0.209 | 0.140 |
| (−1.001–−0.378) | (−0.574–0.653) | (−0.632–0.585) | (−1.166–−0.565) | (−0.398–0.817) | (−0.475–0.755) | |
| 20–24 | −0.793*** | −0.433 | −0.453* | −0.925*** | −0.303 | −0.333 |
| (−1.033–−0.553) | (−0.896–0.030) | (−0.906–−0.001) | (−1.153–−0.698) | (−0.753–0.147) | (−0.784–0.119) | |
| 25–29 | −0.461*** | −0.288* | −0.283* | −0.530*** | −0.244* | −0.247* |
| (−0.620–−0.302) | (−0.543–−0.034) | (−0.533–−0.034) | (−0.680–−0.379) | (−0.484–−0.004) | (−0.488–−0.006) | |
| 35–39 | −0.042 | −0.246 | −0.234 | 0.015 | −0.309* | −0.303* |
| (−0.306–0.222) | (−0.552–0.060) | (−0.534–0.065) | (−0.226–0.257) | (−0.599–−0.019) | (−0.595–−0.011) | |
| 40–44 | −0.365* | −0.839** | −0.838*** | −0.191 | −0.899*** | −0.903*** |
| (−0.689–−0.041) | (−1.385–−0.293) | (−1.365–−0.310) | (−0.523–0.141) | (−1.428–−0.371) | (−1.422–−0.383) | |
| Wave 2012 (ref: 2006) | 0.302 | 0.265 | 0.465*** | 0.414** | ||
| (−0.004–0.608) | (−0.032–0.562) | (0.171–0.760) | (0.113–0.715) | |||
| Community FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.757*** | 0.629** | 0.600** | 0.783*** | 0.389 | 0.389 |
| (0.554–0.960) | (0.211–1.048) | (0.187–1.014) | (0.596–0.970) | (−0.034–0.811) | (−0.039–0.818) | |
| Observations | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 |
| R−squared | 0.470 | 0.535 | 0.551 | 0.481 | 0.558 | 0.569 |
| No. of idpers | 999 | 999 | 999 | 999 | 999 | 999 |