Table 8.
Fixed effects models of Probability of wanting a child during the next 24 months (YES answer) by local Optimism about the future Parents Source Elaboration of the author based on SHP 2004–2021
| Second child | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Variance | |||||
| Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Community optimism about the future (mean−centered) | 0.242 | 0.678 | 1.260*** | |||
| (−0.563–1.046) | (−0.091–1.448) | (0.737–1.784) | ||||
| Community variance in optimism about the future (mean−centered) | −1.208*** | −0.924** | −1.058*** | |||
| (−1.930–−0.486) | (−1.623–−0.225) | (−1.576–−0.540) | ||||
| Employment uncertainty | ||||||
| (ref: Employed, very or quite secure) | ||||||
| Employed, a bit or very insecure job | 0.663*** | 0.464*** | ||||
| (0.514–0.813) | (0.324–0.604) | |||||
| Unemployed | ||||||
| Out of the LF | 0.800*** | 0.771*** | ||||
| (0.650–0.949) | (0.591–0.951) | |||||
| Student | −1.312*** | −0.874* | ||||
| (−2.030–−0.594) | (−1.691–−0.058) | |||||
| Disposable income (mean−centered) | 0.003 | 0.010 | ||||
| (−0.024–0.029) | (−0.020–0.040) | |||||
| Education (ref: upper secondary) | ||||||
| Primary or low secondary | ||||||
| Tertiary | −0.022 | 0.161 | −0.017 | 0.056 | ||
| (−0.722–0.678) | (−0.526–0.848) | (−0.812–0.778) | (−0.704–0.816) | |||
| Age (ref: 30–34) | ||||||
| 15–19 | ||||||
| 20–24 | ||||||
| 25–29 | −0.504 | −9.720*** | −0.565*** | −0.821** | −8.098** | −0.840*** |
| (−1.152–0.143) | (−14.320–−5.120) | (−0.872–−0.259) | (−1.455–−0.187) | (−13.562–−2.633) | (−1.211–−0.470) | |
| 35–39 | −0.257 | 0.347** | 0.477*** | −0.101 | 0.313** | 0.366*** |
| (−0.527–0.012) | (0.088–0.606) | (0.285–0.669) | (−0.333–0.131) | (0.069–0.558) | (0.154–0.578) | |
| 40–44 | −0.489*** | 0.752*** | 0.704*** | −0.152 | 0.733*** | 0.621*** |
| (−0.781–−0.197) | (0.386–1.117) | (0.383–1.025) | (−0.342–0.037) | (0.332–1.134) | (0.230–1.012) | |
| Wave 2012 (ref: 2006) | −3.397*** | −0.772*** | −2.690*** | −0.498*** | ||
| (−4.730–−2.064) | (−1.050–−0.494) | (−4.263–−1.118) | (−0.765–−0.231) | |||
| Age of first child (mean−centered) | 0.430*** | 0.345** | ||||
| (0.208–0.651) | (0.081–0.608) | |||||
| Community FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.619*** | 0.584** | 0.226 | 0.427*** | 0.461 | 0.207 |
| (0.418–0.821) | (0.167–1.000) | (−0.144–0.597) | (0.280–0.574) | (−0.031–0.953) | (−0.206–0.620) | |
| Observations | 372 | 372 | 372 | 372 | 372 | 372 |
| R−squared | 0.476 | 0.646 | 0.793 | 0.569 | 0.673 | 0.789 |
| No. of idpers | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 |