Table 9.
Fixed effects models of Probability of being uncertain about wanting a child during the next 24 months (D/K answer) by local Optimism about the future Childless Source Elaboration of the author based on SHP 2004–2021
| First child | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Variance | |||||
| Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | Model | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Community optimism about the future (mean−centered) | 0.130 | 0.207* | 0.235* | |||
| (−0.028–0.287) | (0.004–0.411) | (0.036–0.433) | ||||
| Community variance in optimism about the future (mean−centered) | −0.077 | −0.031 | −0.053 | |||
| (−0.295–0.141) | (−0.279–0.216) | (−0.301–0.195) | ||||
| Employment uncertainty | ||||||
| (ref: Employed, very or quite secure) | ||||||
| Employed, a bit or very insecure job | 0.134 | 0.135 | ||||
| (−0.001–0.270) | (−0.002–0.272) | |||||
| Unemployed | 0.004 | 0.011 | ||||
| (−0.073–0.080) | (−0.060–0.082) | |||||
| Out of the LF | 0.025 | 0.026 | ||||
| (−0.037–0.087) | (−0.050–0.101) | |||||
| Student | −0.025 | −0.017 | ||||
| (−0.072–0.022) | (−0.059–0.025) | |||||
| Disposable income ( Thousands mean−centered) | −0.003 | −0.002 | ||||
| (−0.014–0.008) | (−0.013–0.008) | |||||
| Education (ref: upper secondary) | ||||||
| Primary or low secondary | −0.015 | −0.033 | −0.003 | −0.015 | ||
| (−0.048–0.018) | (−0.084–0.017) | (−0.034–0.027) | (−0.060–0.029) | |||
| Tertiary | 0.060* | 0.046 | 0.067* | 0.058 | ||
| (0.006–0.114) | (−0.012–0.105) | (0.008–0.126) | (−0.001–0.117) | |||
| Age (ref: 30–34) | ||||||
| 15–19 | 0.061 | −0.234* | −0.224* | 0.003 | −0.226* | −0.213 |
| (−0.029–0.150) | (−0.445–−0.022) | (−0.447–−0.000) | (−0.093–0.100) | (−0.437–−0.015) | (−0.444–0.019) | |
| 20–24 | 0.050 | −0.159* | −0.155* | 0.007 | −0.152* | −0.143 |
| (−0.026–0.126) | (−0.308–−0.010) | (−0.307–−0.003) | (−0.074–0.088) | (−0.298–−0.006) | (−0.296–0.011) | |
| 25–29 | 0.037 | −0.076 | −0.088* | 0.016 | −0.075* | −0.082* |
| (−0.044–0.118) | (−0.155–0.003) | (−0.172–−0.003) | (−0.068–0.100) | (−0.148–−0.002) | (−0.161–−0.003) | |
| 35–39 | −0.136 | −0.025 | −0.023 | −0.107 | −0.011 | −0.011 |
| (−0.283–0.011) | (−0.146–0.096) | (−0.142–0.096) | (−0.236–0.022) | (−0.143–0.120) | (−0.144–0.121) | |
| 40–44 | −0.194* | 0.075 | 0.065 | −0.141* | 0.070 | 0.055 |
| (−0.378–−0.010) | (−0.127–0.277) | (−0.137–0.267) | (−0.263–−0.019) | (−0.138–0.278) | (−0.158–0.267) | |
| Wave 2012 (ref: 2006) | −0.172* | −0.172* | −0.136* | −0.127 | ||
| (−0.318–−0.026) | (−0.317–−0.026) | (−0.271–−0.001) | (−0.277–0.022) | |||
| Community FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | 0.049 | 0.184* | 0.183** | 0.062 | 0.156* | 0.141 |
| (−0.017–0.114) | (0.024–0.343) | (0.030–0.336) | (−0.003–0.126) | (0.005–0.306) | (−0.012–0.293) | |
| Observations | 1,149 | 1,149 | 1,149 | 1,149 | 1,149 | 1,149 |
| R−squared | 0.113 | 0.145 | 0.175 | 0.111 | 0.134 | 0.162 |
| No. of idpers | 1024 | 1024 | 1024 | 1024 | 1024 | 1024 |